The betting markets haven’t caught up

Last year I opined on Twitter that there were several markets at once with odds which I’d usually call ‘Bet of the Year’. I’ve previously written about all but one of these: Andy Burnham to be next Labour Leader. He’s currently 7/2 or so at the bookies and a tad longer at exchanges, but he should be far far longer.

The reason for this is that Burnham really only has one clear path to the leadership: Replacing Starmer after the next general election (ideally an early election too, so his position among Labour members doesn’t fade). But the prospects of that happening have receded significantly of late without Burnham’s odds moving accordingly.

As I assume every reader of this site has noticed: Labour are polling pretty well right now. From a few points behind for most of 2021 they have surged to decent leads, which if reflected in an election would make Keir Starmer our next Prime Minister.

Now that is a very big ‘if’. But the prospects of Starmer winning the next election in some form are probably a coin toss or so. And if he does Burnham is very unlikely to replace him in the early 2030s or whenever Prime Minister Starmer left office.

But it gets worse, for Mr Burnham. Even if Starmer loses, and its not like the Tories have never come back from mid-term polling deficits before, the current polls make the chances of a snap election anytime soon pretty slim. The Tories may replace Boris Johnson at some point (though I’m on the record as being skeptical about that too, incidentally) but no-one who might replace him is interested in calling a snap election while behind in the polls.

Three months ago, when I wrote my Twitter thread, Burnham looked like the frontrunner to replace Starmer after a pretty likely electoral defeat and the Tories were openly eyeing up a 2023 election (or even sooner). Now, that scenario is much less likely and Burnham’s chances are increasingly based around a new Tory leader with a polling honeymoon calling a snap election and winning it. That’s certainly not impossible, but it’s not an easy route.

So why is he still the same odds, if not shorter, than he was three months ago? The ground has shifted under his feet in a pretty disadvantageous manner, and while it could shift back there is certainly no guarantee of that. Three months ago he was probably a tad too short anyway, but now he’s a screaming lay.

One other point: Which is that Burnham might not win a leadership election anyway. His dominant 2021 Mayoral re-election, winning every single ward in Greater Manchester, cemented him as the leadership frontrunner. But his second term has not started ideally. A planned Clean Air Zone, due to launch in May, has triggered a storm in a city where it feels to some too much like the congestion charge residents voted against in 2008.

Whatever your views on that particular issue, the fact is that no-one in politics remains on top forever. Burnham has a window of opportunity which lasts as long as he remains the party’s leading light and no-one outshines him. But at the same time as his window may be shrinking there is every indication it needs to last longer than ever.

Quincel

Pip Moss posts on Political Betting as Quincel. He has bets against Andy Burnham to be Next Labour Leader at roughly 4/1. You can follow him on Twitter at @PipsFunFacts