What I find interesting looking at the above table is just how well the Tories were doing in the early summer around the time of the Hartlepool by-election which of course became a Labour loss and a Conservative gain. This, f course, was at the peak of the vaccine bounce when Johnson’s government was getting the credit for the vaccine programme.

That was not to stop the Tory loss the following month in the Chesham and Amersham by-election when there was a CON to LD swing of 25.1%.

We now move on to this week and things are not going as well for the Tories which are seeing their worst polling position for seven years. It is in this context that Thursday’s by-election is being held.

I still think the betting markets are over-pricing an LD victory. Smarkets has them at 62% chance which I do not think is value.

Mike Smithson