My search to try to find a value North Shropshire bet
Although I think that the LDs have a good chance in Thursday’s North Shropshire by-election I am not tempted by the current odds which currently rate the party’s chances at 61%. Even though we know that the party is “good” at Westminster by-elections this is far too tight. I would rate the party’s chances at evens but no tighter.
In any case I got on Davey’s party at 5 and longer at the start of the campaign so will get a nice return if they do it.
But what of other possibilities? What we do know from past LD by-election successes against the Tories is that they are good at squeezing the Labour vote. At Chesham and Amersham in June the Labour vote dropped to just 1.6% . We all recall a few December 2016 at Richmond Park when the total of Labour votes was fewer than the number of party members in the constituency. The percentage was 3.6%
It was the same story in the LD gain of Brecon & Radnorshire in 2019 when the Labour vote dropped from 17.7%% to 5.3%.
My conclusion is that if the LDs win or get close in North Shropshire on Thursday then the Labour vote could easily be below 5% and I am on at 5 with Smarkets. I’ve also got a covering bet in the 5-10% range.