The polls have been so static it’s hard to bet on a LAB lead in 3 weeks

The polls have been so static it’s hard to bet on a LAB lead in 3 weeks


One of the regular markets that Smarkets is now putting up is whether Labour will get a poll lead within a set period. I got on yes in the first market which covered the whole period between August and the end of the year. This proved to be a winner for as a result of that solitary LAB lead in mid-September.

Since then the betting exchange has gone on to put up regular markets and I think that the latest out today is the fourth. What has been quite extraordinary in recent months is how little the polls have moved except to edge down from big Conservative leads to smaller ones. in the late summer I was suggesting that things might change a bit during the conference season and how wrong I was.

These are the market rules:

This market relate to the headline, rounded percentage voting figures for UK or GB general election voting intention polls from the named pollsters. This market will be settled as a winner if any of the following polling companies publicly report a headline voting intention lead for the Labour party: Opinium, YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Savanta ComRes, Survation, Deltapoll, Kantar TNS, Ipsos Mori or BMG. The poll must be released between 12 October and 1 November 2021 (inclusive) to qualify.

If the YES odds move to below say 18% it might just be worth a punt.

Mike Smithson

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