There have been thirteen Westminster by-elections since December 2016 and an extraordinary fact is that in all but one of them, Stoke Central in February 2017, the winning candidate has been a woman.

This streak started with Sarah Olney gaining Richmond Park for the LDs followed by Caroline Johnson’s safe retention of Sleaford and N Hykham a week later for the Tories. Trudy Harrison gained Copeland from LAB for the Tories two months later on the same day as Stoke Central.

In the 2017-2019 Parliament Orfhlaith Begley held West Tyrone for Sinn Fein while Janet Daby, Ruth Jones and Lisa Forbes held Lewisham E, Newport W and Peterborough for Labour. Then in August 2019 Jane Dodds won Brecon & Radnorshire off the Tories for the LDs.

This summer Jill Mortimer gained Hartlepool for the Tories while Anum Qaisar-Javed retained Airdrie & Shotts for the SNP. Then a fortnight ago Sarah Green gained Chesham and Amersham on a 25% CON to LD swing. In the early hours yesterday, of course, Kim Leadbeater, pictured above, retained Batley and Spen for LAB.

So 92.3% of recent by election winners have been women compared with the total 34% for all MPs.

Maybe this is because candidate selection can make a big difference in a high octane by-election contests party HQs play a big role and women are seen as better contenders.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.