And the only poll, from Survation, was wrong as well

Throughout this whole campaign the narrative was that LAB was going to get beaten and the story we would be covering this morning was whether Starmer would survive as LAB leader.

We did have a poll that was published two weeks ago that had LAB 41%, CON 47%, LD 3%, Galloway 6%. The result at 5.30am this morning was:

There is little doubt that Russia Today presenter and former LAB MP, Galloway, did have an impact but he failed in his effort to stop LAB. He can add this to his ever-expanding list of election flops.

Labour threw an enormous amount into this battle and had what clearly was a very effective operation on the day and the party did it.

This looks set to have an impact on the political narrative and after totally smashing BoJo at PMQs on Wednesday Keir Starmer can look back at a very satisfactory few days.

Can I thank former LAB MP and long standing PBer, Nick Palmer, for his excellent posts from the campaign.

Can I also add modestly that for the second successive by-election I got it right about the chances of the strong odds-on Tory favourite.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.