Like all party leaders after a much publicised by-election victory Keir Starmer sped up to constituency for the now customary photo event with the winning candidate and assorted party workers.

For all the Tories have tried to play this result down the expectations were that they were heading for another clear victory in “the North” so long seen as LAB territory. The betting markets, as discussed in an earlier thread, are a good way of looking at perceptions and it was clear throughout that this contest was looked at through the lens of Hartlepool which seems ages ago. The expectation was that this would be another CON gain in the North,

The narrative that was building was about how long Starmer would survive as leader. This is the Smarkets betting chart on Starmer’s exit showing how punters reacted to the result.

I think the betting is right and Starmer would be facing an uncomfortable weekend if the Tories in Batley had managed to pick up a few hundred more votes. But that has not happened.

What was interesting to was how many Starmer opponents within the party were hoping for party flop in the election so they could try to get him out.

That the outcome was seen as something of a shock will help Starmer and he looks secure.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.

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