In all the analysis of today’s Batley and Spen by-election there has hardly been any mention of the national political picture and a clear narrowing of the Tory poll lead particularly since that Sun front page with the picture of then HealthSec Hancock with an aide.

Looking at the numbers the latest Redfield poll has CON down 4% on last week with Savanta/Comres showing 5% drop on the week – both polls showing CON>LAB swings since GE2019. The latest YouGov lead of 12% is down from the 18% at the start of the by-election campaign.

The latest BoJo leader ratings have him slipping across the board. Redifield has him on a net minus 2, Opinium minus 4 and YouGov with a net minus 15% in its favourabity tracker.

Yesterday’s PMQs had Starmer with what’s being regarded as his most effective performance yet when he pressed BoJo on his assertions that he had sacked Hancock which was totally different from what the occupant of Number 10 had been saying only a few days earlier.

Judging by the tabloid coverage this is a story that really has cut through to the public including, I would suggest, voters in B&S. My guess is that it won’t lead to Tories switching but might just impact on their likelihood to turn out.

Betfair’s current 7 on LAB looks like value.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.