Unlike the Tories LAB doesn’t need a majority to form the next government

The above chart shows the movement on the Betfair “next PM” market over the past 12 months. As can be seen the big mover has been Starmer who reached a 32% chance last August but has now fallen back to just 12%.

This is a hard market to call because just about the only way the LAB leader gets called to the Palace is after a general election. The Tory contenders in the betting could easily become PM if for whatever reason BoJo has to stand aside before then.

At the moment the incumbent seems in a reasonable position though like all Tory leaders his biggest worry is the parliamentary party where there’s a simple mechanism to force a leader out. This is very much unlike LAB where it is much harder to remove a failing leader.

Based on what is happening at the moment Starmer could enter Number 10 even, as is highly likely, his party doesn’t have a majority or even most MPs. The one requirement is for Tories to shed enough seats that they can’t have a majority.

Given the fact the Sein Fein won’t take it up its likely 7/8 Northern Ireland seats which means it is going to be difficult for BoJo’s party to hang onto power with 317 MPs or fewer.

We can envisage Tory losses to the SNP in Scotland and to the LDs in those Remain seats with a profile a bit like Chesham & Amersham. If the Tory poll lead drops below 11.7% (the GB vote margin at GE2019) then theoretically there should be LAB gains from CON.

Taking all this into account then in my view there is a greater than 12% chance that the Tories could lose power with Starmer, if he’s still LAB leader, taking the limo up the Mall.

Just to repeat what I state very often here. Suggested bets are not predictions but assessments of value.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.