Should we expect the same over Hancock?

Last year the news of Dom’s lockdown breaking trip to Barnard Castle had a huge impact on the CON lead in the voting intention polls.

Redfield & Wilson dropped from a 19% CON lead at the start of May to a 2% one. Opinium went from 18% to 5% while with YouGov it was 20% at the start of the month to 5%. Whether all that can be atributed to the Cummings revelations is hard to say but near the end of the month it dominated the front pages for nearly a week.

The Johnson approval ratings during the same period saw some bigger drops. Opinium had him with a net approval of plus 20% at the start of May which was down to minus 5% at the end.

A lot here, I would suggest is how long this stays in the headlines and the views of many Tory backbench MPs who have become increasingly hostile to the continuation of the lockdown rules when the death rate is down to a trickle compared to what it was.

BoJo has stuck with his man like he stuck with Cummings. I thought in both cases he was wrong. This is the sort of thing that gets remembered.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.