What has been quite remarkable is how in the space of a week the whole way we are looking at the next general election has been transformed. Last Tuesday morning nobody really doubted that the Tories would retain C&A with a clear majority and few were ready to voice doubts about BoJo’s ability to lead his party to another majority at the next election.

Now after C&A things look very different and experts like John Curtice are talking about the possiblity of the Tories dropping enough seats that would be enough to deprive them of a majority. I don’t know whether it was Curtice who coined the term “uncoalitionable” but few dounbt that it would be a struggle for BoJo to find partners to prop up a government if the Tories dropped 40-50 seats.

The half dozen MPs that the blue team have north of the border were already in doubt. Now we should add those Tory seats in areas that voted remain and where the LD are in second place – that’s about 80 of them. A blue seat total of 317 or less looks a possibility. In that situation it is hard to see who BoJo would look to for support to remain in power.

Clearly the LDs won’t prop up a Tory government and there must be real doubts about getting the DUP on board. When LAB had Corbyn as its leader there was a very powerful argument for the DUP not to let the red team get anywhere near power. The Starmer-led official oppositon presents a very different challenge.

All this leads to the conclusion that the Tories need a majority to retain power.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.