The value by-election bet, surely, is LAB at 26% not CON at 73%

With the by-election taking place a week on Thursday any data about what happened in recent elections in the seat is well worth examining and arguably could be a better indicator than the one 500 sample poll that we have seen,

The above table has been compiled by David Cowling, the BBC’s former head of political research, who painstakingly went through the detailed results of each council ward in the area from the last locals in the area. As can be seen LAB chalked up 9% more than CON and there is a sizeable slab for LD/GRN.

What strikes me is that the agregate total of LAB/LD/GRN votes exceeds the CON/OTH share by a sizeable margin.

A big unknown is what impact George Galloway is going to have.

Of course we should expect a higher turnout in the by-election but not that much higher. As I write the last Betfair trade on CON was at 73% with LAB at 26%.

This by-election is getting far more media coverage than Chesham and Amersham which was largely ignored until the LDs had their shock victory with a 25% swing from CON.

I’ve now re-invested part of my C&A winnings on LAB in B&S. As I always state bets are not predictions but statements of value based on the odds available.

Mike Smithson

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