If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an outlier
This morning’s YouGov poll in The Times attracted a lot of attention, which given the allegations of sleaze emanating, inter alia, from the Greensill Capital story the doubling of the Tory lead was something most of us weren’t expecting. Critics of Starmer seemed to use this poll to criticise him until it was pointed they were inconsistent, contrasting their past behaviour when defending bad polls for Corbyn.
The YouGov poll just felt like an outlier to me and others, some of it partly because of the Greens being on 8%, then a few hours later Survation published their latest poll (albeit with a slightly earlier fieldwork period than YouGov). One of the earliest lessons I learned on PB from the great Sir Bob Worcester was to not focus on the leads but the shares, and whilst the 43% for the Tories is consistent the 29% for Labour was not.
The fact that Starmer and his supporters feel reassured that the polls only have them ‘only’ 8% behind the Tories gives the feeling that Labour at the next general election are set to play the role of the Iceni, Trinovantes, and other British peoples led by Boudica at the Battle of Watling Street.
The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around. It’ll be interesting to see the results from other pollsters with fieldwork similar or later to YouGov.
TSE