Whenever there is a new US President one of the first betting markets to appear is this one – where will be his/her first international visit. What I like about the above one from Smarkets is that it limits the list to six obvious ones. The Ukraine is also on the list but nobody had bet on it at the time of me doing my screen grab.
We know that Biden is almost certain to be in the UK for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference which is scheduled to take place in November in Glasgow. That is some time off and surely it is likely that there will be some overseas visit to one of the countries listed before then.
We do know that Biden’s family originally came from Ireland and I wonder whether he could stop off there on his way to another destination. We also know that he has made his views very clear on Brexit.
I also wonder whether a visit to Angela Merkel in Germany might be an early priority. My instinct is that the UK odds are too tight at the moment and that might be worth a lay.
These are the market rules which could be quite signficant:
This market concerns the first official international visit (of the countries listed) made by US President Joe Biden following his inauguration in January 2021. This market will be settled based on the first of those listed countries that is visited by Joe Biden in his role as President of the United States. If Joe Biden does not visit any of the listed countries in an official capacity in 2021, this market will be void. If Joe Biden is not inaugurated as President of the United States in January 2021, this market will be void. This market will settle based on the country that Joe Biden is visiting for an official meeting, rather than one he is passing through in transit on his way to the intended destination.