Moving on from Trump punters make it 69% chance that there will be UK-EU deal this year
Above is the market from Smarkets, the betting exchange that unlike Betfair settled Biden bets at the weekend, on whether there’ll be a UK deal with the EU by the end of December.
Undoubtedly what happened on November 3rd in the US and the prospect of President Biden has impacted on punters. The chances of a quick deal with the US in the event of a no-deal Brexit must have greatly diminished and that is something that the UK and Boris have to face up to.
The new political environment means that whatever the agreement with the EU then the position of the Good Friday Agreement cannot be undermined. Biden is going to be very influenced by the view from Dublin.
This probably gives the upper hand in the negotiations to Brussels but then sobeit. Maybe Boris will surprise us by holding out but my guess is that he won’t.