If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men
And that adds to Trump’s problems
One of the features of this election which has been repeatedly observed is how poorly Trump is doing with women voters particularly those with college degrees. Four years ago that segment was mostly for Trump now its switched to Biden.
Above is part of the demographic breakdown in this week’s NYT/Siena poll which shows the scale of the gender gap in this election. As can be observed Trump has a 6% lead amongst men but trails by a whopping 23% with women.
What is not appreciated is that this position is exacerbated by the voting patterns of men and women as set out in this analysis from the Center for American Women and Politics where three factors are at play:
- There are significantly more adult women in the US than men
- Women are significantly more likely to be registered to vote than men
- Amongst registered voters women are more likely to turnout
The result at the midterms in 2018 was that 65.3m women voted compared with 56.9m men.
If something like that plays out at this election it makes Trump re-election chances even harder.