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Month: September 2020

On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

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On Betfair he’s 53% to Trump’s 45% We are more than seven weeks away from the Presidential Election on November 3rd yet we can state with certainty that this will be be biggest political betting event there has ever been. On the UK exchange, Betfair, a total of £82m+ has already been wagered on one market alone and that is just one bookmaker. All of the conventional firms and the spread betting companies have very active markets and by the…

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Johnson’s former Attorney-General, Geoffrey Cox, says he’ll rebel against the PM’s ignore international law bill

Johnson’s former Attorney-General, Geoffrey Cox, says he’ll rebel against the PM’s ignore international law bill

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He’s the biggest name so far With Johnson planning to push ahead with a law that would allow the government to ignore treaty obligations in relation to Brexit a big Tory figure and Brexiteer, former A-G Geoffrey Cox has told that Times that he plans to join the rebels when this comes before the house. It is being reported that Cox’s mind is made up despite several appeals by the PM over the weekend. A big element is not just…

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A Question

A Question

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This morning the Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland, said in TV interview on the BBC in a response to a question from Andrew Marr: “If I see the rule of law being broken in a way I find unacceptable then of course I will go.” Tomorrow – in a matter of hours from now – the Government has announced – but not yet published the necessary regulations – that any socialising at home or elsewhere…

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on there being an electoral college tie, by comparison Paddy Power are offering 33/1, I regard the Ladbrokes politics team led by Matthew Shaddick are the shrewdest political bookies out there, so this discrepancy caught my attention. There are a few routes to a 269 tie for example, ‘if Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District vote for Joe Biden rather than for Donald Trump as they did in 2016. Those shifts, if all other state outcomes…

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Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

Will tonight see the first poll since GE2019 with LAB ahead?

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It might seem an eternity ago but in the first polls in April this year after Starmer became LAB leader two pollsters had CON leads of 26%. Since then things have fallen back sharply for the governing party and in its last survey at the end of August Opinium, had LAB and CON level pegging on 40% each. Tonight we are due the latest Opinium poll and I just wonder whether this will be the moment that LAB edges into…

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Winter is coming: the reckoning

Winter is coming: the reckoning

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No Deal and a Covid resurgence will make a torrid winter for the government Time was when Conservative governments stood for law and order; they didn’t wantonly break law themselves. Time was when Conservative governments stood for the Union; they didn’t sign up to first sell out Ulster unionists and then U-turn and enrage nationalists (which is at least even-handed). Time was when Conservative governments valued a stable economy, sound money and a low deficit. Time was when Conservative governments…

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Promises, promises – then and now

Promises, promises – then and now

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In The Big Chill two characters have this exchange:- Michael: “I don’t know anyone who could get through the day without two or three juicy rationalisations. They’re more important than sex.” Sam: “Ah, come on. Nothing’s more important than sex.” Michael: “Oh yeah? Ever gone a week without a rationalisation?” If ever you needed proof, this week has provided a plethora of examples, with doubtless more to come. They’ve come from the PM and all those new Red Wall Tory…

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A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

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Early voting has been going on for a a few days now in group of key states where it’s possible from the data that is being made available to get some indication of how the WH2020 battle is going. Of course no votes have been counted yet – this is all derived from the numbers requesting to vote by mail linked and with what is known about them. In several of the States where information is available we are told…

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