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Month: September 2020

WH2020: The courts put a halt on US Postal Service changes that could have impacted on the election outcome

WH2020: The courts put a halt on US Postal Service changes that could have impacted on the election outcome

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This could be an important decision by the courts because Trump has made no secret of his desire to impede postal voting because he believes it strongly favours his opponent. This is from the Washington Post’s report of the judgement by Judge Stanley A. Bastian: The states have demonstrated that the defendants are involved in a politically motivated attack on the efficiency of the Postal Service. They have also demonstrated that this attack on the Postal Service is likely to…

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WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets – Trump punters should go for Michigan or Wisconsin

WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets – Trump punters should go for Michigan or Wisconsin

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As I write (1100 BST) quite a gap in the betting value has developed between the Betfair exchange odds on the national party of the next president market and what is available in the key states that will decide this election. For there is almost no way that Trump can hang on unless he holds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – the rust belt states that effectively gave him victory at WH2016. So currently the odds on available on the parties…

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Biden makes clear that a US-UK trade deal is dependent on NO hard border in Ireland

Biden makes clear that a US-UK trade deal is dependent on NO hard border in Ireland

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We are now less than seven weeks from the US Presidential election and the national and swing state polling points to Joe Biden becoming the next President. So his intervention on the impact of what is resolved over Brexit and the Irish question is critical. This cannot be put on one side. The problem is that the question of the status of Northern Ireland was always going to be difficult if the UK left the EU. The whole essence of…

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Leave it to Cummings

Leave it to Cummings

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And now for something for completely different I tell you, there are days that you can’t please anyone. It all started conventionally enough.  The fresh morning light crept through the gap in the curtains and caressed my face with the tenderness of an unattended car alarm. The Moggster had introduced me to a patriotic drink called Lambrini the previous evening.  I was now flying the Union Flag upside down. As I lay on my bed, sprawled and desolately flapping like a mackerel…

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Now the Johnson/Cummings move to change the Brexit agreement threatens a US-UK trade deal

Now the Johnson/Cummings move to change the Brexit agreement threatens a US-UK trade deal

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One of the big challenges presented by Brexit is that the UK needs to make trade deals with nations that before had deals with the EU and there’s a reminder of the pressure that can be exerted in the above letter from Washington DC. For in the US any trade deal would have to be approved by the House of Representatives which, of course could lead to all sorts of other issues being raised. A nation operating on its own…

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A back down by Boris on his “break international law Bill” ?

A back down by Boris on his “break international law Bill” ?

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The above Tweet from the Times suggests that the Prime Minister is thinking of compromising over his controversial Brexit move which would ignore a Treaty obligation which is in breach of international law. This would seem entirely logical because the chances are that the bill will have a rough time in the House of Lords. There is the Salisbury convention that broadly states that the Upper House should not vote down measures that were in the manifesto of the wining…

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Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

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If this continues Trump is out One of the striking features of the pattern of current Trump v Biden polling is how much it looks like the main polling for the Midterms in 2018. Just like that for the White House race now the Democratic lead in generic congressional polling followed a pretty constant 7-8% in the polling averages. As it turned out the 2018 surveys undershot the Dem final total by more than one point. The November 2018 Midterms…

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