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Month: September 2020

The challenge for Trump is that white voters are now significantly less likely to support him than at WH2016

The challenge for Trump is that white voters are now significantly less likely to support him than at WH2016

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There’s a great analysis on Politico on some of the demographic trends being seen in the latest polling on the White House race: Trump’s rhetoric does not appear to be resonating with white America to the degree that he did in 2016. That year, whites cast nearly three-quarters of the vote nationally, and Trump won those voters by about 15 percentage points, according to Pew. Four years later, Biden has torn into that advantage, though to what degree is uncertain….

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New Ipsos US polling finds HALF of Republican voters oppose the plan to fill the Supreme Court vacancy before the election

New Ipsos US polling finds HALF of Republican voters oppose the plan to fill the Supreme Court vacancy before the election

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A new Reuters/Ipsos poll carried out after the news of the Supreme Court vacancy became known finds a significant level voter opposition to the Trump/McConnell plan to fill it before the election. A total of 62% of US adults thought the vacancy should be filled by the winner of the November 3rd White House election, while 23% disagreed and the rest said they were not sure. As you would expect eight out of 10 Democrats want the decision delayed until…

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This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race

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I’m very intrigued by this analysis by the New York Times, as seen in the tweets above, it probably explains the current prices on Betfair where Trump is very close to Biden. There’s always a danger of refighting the last war, as Elliott Morris acknowledges, but in 2012 the RCP nationwide polling average had Obama winning by 0.7% when in reality he ended up winning by 3.9%, if we see that kind of error then Biden’s looking at something close…

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The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

The joy of six. How many of these states will Trump win?

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Ladbrokes have a super six market of states, of these six, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, how many will Trump win. To be honest I’m not seeing any value here and see this as a market that will pay for the bonuses for those who compile the odds for markets like this. If you were to work out the accumulator odds for all individual six states to be won by Trump using the odds offered by Ladbrokes…

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It looks as though Trump won’t press ahead with a Supreme Court nominee this side of the election

It looks as though Trump won’t press ahead with a Supreme Court nominee this side of the election

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The big development in US politics in the past hour has been the above news from the White House that seems to suggest that Trump won’t seek to push through a Supreme Court nomination before the Presidential Election on November 3rd. This comes as something as a surprise given the comments by Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell. If this is indeed the case my guess is that is that they weren’t confident that they would get the backing required from…

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Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit

Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit

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The whole nature of the 2020 campaign has just changed. For all her liberal views, one of the most significant legacies of Ruth Bader Ginsburg – via the happenstance of when she died – might be to embed a conservative majority on the US Supreme Court for a generation. Time is short. The Republicans have only six weeks to secure a replacement if they are to be able to go to their voters and claim the achievement of having delivered…

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With just 46 days to go till WH2020 Biden moves up in the betting

With just 46 days to go till WH2020 Biden moves up in the betting

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Trump in worse position at this point than when up against Hillary four years ago As each day goes by and we get closer to election day, now just 46 days off, there is no significant change in Trump’s position. He’s still trailing in national polls by markedly bigger margins than he was against Hillary Clinton last time and this must raise doubts about his prospects. A big factor is likely to be a higher turnout than we have seen…

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Does the Internal Markets Bill Compromise Work?

Does the Internal Markets Bill Compromise Work?

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That rather depends on what the aim is But first, what does it actually do? The government’s compromise with Sir Bob Neill on his amendment does the following:- It gives the House of Commons (but not the Lords) the right to vote before the government triggers the clauses disapplying the provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Act implementing it. It might even be (but hasn’t been – yet) called a Meaningful Vote. In a week when: – (a) regulations…

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