Rishi is now a 22% chance while Stamer’s at 28%
Since Stamer became LAB leader on April 4th his lead in the next PM betting has been shaved by much more interest in the man who was a junior minister barely 10 months ago, Rishi Sunak.
The key factor here, of course, is when will the next general election take place for it is hard to see Starmer having any chance until there has been an election and the Tories have have lost their majority. Given the size of the Tory winning seat margin last December it is hard to envisage a general election being called much earlier than May 2024 which is the last date laid down by the Fixed-Term Parliament Act.
If Johnson, for whatever reason, was to go before the election then the betting market is right surely to think that Sunak would be in with a strong chance. He is probably the only cabinet minister apart from perhaps Priti Patel and Michael Gove who has any real name recognition and he has by far the besting polling figures of any current British politician. The rest are almost all nonentities or, like Gavin Williamson, are not serious potential runners for the big job.
Having got £20 on with Ladbrokes last November at a whopping 250/1 that Sunak will be the I’m feeling pretty good about my position.