Paddy Power have some interesting markets on the Presidential election, first up is the 1/4 on Biden winning the popular vote by five million votes or more, which would be more impressive than the near three million votes Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump with in 2016.

My initial hunch is not to back this bet even though Ladbrokes are offering 1/7 on the Democratic Party candidate winning the popular vote by any margin (Betfair are offering close to 2/11 before commission on it happening). Not backing this bet isn’t a slight on Joe Biden campaigning skills and more down to the simple fact I fear voting supression chicanery from the Republican Party at all levels to make voting harder (especially for minorities and other Democratic Party inclined voters) which will impact the size of the popular vote victory.

We may also see a depressed turnout because of Covid-19 fears and second (and other) waves, so I’m sticking with the Democratic Party winning the popular vote, but not at the five million plus votes level.

As for the market on Donald Trump not be re-elected at 4/9, well over on Betfair you can lay Trump and/or the Republican Party in this election at around 15/8 which really makes your choice very easy.

TSE