I have a long history of always losing money betting on who will be the Vice Presidential nomination in an American presidential election. Even for WH2020 I’m in negative territory having had a small wager on Elizabeth Warren before the big moves ahead of Super Tuesday that saw Pete Buttigieg and Amy klobuchar get behind Joe Biden
It his piece this morning David herdson suggested Julian Castro was a good bet and that has helped shift him on Betfair to his current position of a 3% chance.
On this VP choice I think that the betting market has got it right about Kamala Harris if only for the fact that Joe Biden specifically mentioned her in the run-up to the South Carolina primary a week and a half ago. Being a prominent US senator, a person of colour as well as being a woman she seems to tick a lot of boxes and I’m sure that this is how Biden will approach this.
I just wonder though if there’s a possibility that Pete Buttigieg might be the choice because there is little doubt that Biden’s position today as a very solid favourite for the nomination is totally down to Mayor Pete’s move to pull out of the race and give his support to the former VP. Maybe there was a secret deal done? Certainly at current odds Pete would be my long shot bet.
The overwhelming factor for whoever gets the nomination is to choose someone who will strengthen the ticket against Donald Trump. Castro. Buttigieg and Harris would all fit that bill.