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Month: February 2020

Expect Warren to get the biggest boost from last night – and that could be at the expense of Sanders

Expect Warren to get the biggest boost from last night – and that could be at the expense of Sanders

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And Buttigieg could gain from Bloomberg tailing off One of the reasons why Sanders has soared in the polling in recent weeks has been that his main opponent on the progressive wing, Elizabeth Warren, has been falling like a lead balloon. This followed her less than convincing performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. But there’s little doubt that she is being seen as the winner of the Las Vegas debate with her highly effective attacks on Bloomberg which set the…

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Bloomberg slumps sharply in the nomination betting after coming under fierce attacks in the Las Vegas debate

Bloomberg slumps sharply in the nomination betting after coming under fierce attacks in the Las Vegas debate

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It was Bernie’s toughest night as well As everybody was expecting the first appearance on a debate stage by Mike Bloomberg was going to see him as the main target by the other leading contenders in the race. This is how the New York Times is reporting it:  “The Democratic presidential candidates turned on one another in scorching and personal terms in a debate on Wednesday night, with two of the leading candidates, Senator Bernie Sanders and Michael R. Bloomberg,…

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It is crunch time tonight for Mike Bloomberg as he faces his first WH2020 debate

It is crunch time tonight for Mike Bloomberg as he faces his first WH2020 debate

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No doubt he’ll be the target of all the contenders Until now multi billionaire Mike Bloomberg has taken an unusual approach to his bid for the Democratic nomination. For starters he has skipped the tedious business of fundraising paying for his hugely expensive campaign himself. Secondly he has bypassed the first four primaries focusing all his efforts and money on the Super Tuesday states which vote on March 3. Also until now he has avoided the regular TV debates between…

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Some Corbyn backers still not persuaded that GE2019 was the total disaster for their party that it was

Some Corbyn backers still not persuaded that GE2019 was the total disaster for their party that it was

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This seems a simple thing to do but haven’t seen it anywhere yet so here it is: Labour % vote share change between 2015 and 2019, by seat, giving the “net Corbyn effect” on the Labour share https://t.co/Ls5hW6GQGg — Simon (@simonk_133) February 17, 2020 Many LAB votes on December 12th were in spite of Corbyn not for him After GE2017 many within the Labour movement chose not to regard the outcome as a defeat but as a victory because the…

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A Journal Of The Plague Year. The politics of Covid-19

A Journal Of The Plague Year. The politics of Covid-19

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If you aren’t worried, you haven’t been paying attention.  Recent outbreaks of contagious illnesses – SARS, Ebola, bird flu – have been contained fairly efficiently.  So, many have assumed that the same will apply to the coronavirus Covid-19. That’s not inevitable.   On such occasions, everyone becomes an instant expert in epidemiology.  Let’s try to avoid that and concentrate on what we do, and more importantly, don’t know.  We don’t know with any reliability how many cases there are now (China…

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Punters rate Bernie as an 84% chance in Nevada but level pegging with Biden in S Carolina

Punters rate Bernie as an 84% chance in Nevada but level pegging with Biden in S Carolina

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These are the latest charts from Betdata.io on the next two Democratic primaries in WH2020. Essentially they show how punters who are risking their cash are rating these two races. My own view is that both Biden and Sanders are far too old to be rated as candidates for the presidency and that sooner or later a younger centrist will emerge. At the moment Biden, based on the first two states to decide appears in a stronger position than Biden…

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My 760/1 shot for WH2020 raises $12m in 5 days after her strong New Hampshire Showing

My 760/1 shot for WH2020 raises $12m in 5 days after her strong New Hampshire Showing

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Apart from Biden’s terrible performance and Elizabeth Warren only getting 9.7% of the vote the big surprise of last week’s New Hampshire primary was Amy Klobuchar’s strong third place which was well ahead of what the polls were showing. Her 19.8% vote share was well ahead of the 11.7% that she had in the RCP polling average of final polls for the state. That is some difference. I’ve long been watching Klobuchar’s progress closely after putting £8 on her at…

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Sabisky decides to go of his own accord

Sabisky decides to go of his own accord

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Hey all,The media hysteria about my old stuff online is mad but I wanted to help HMG not be a distraction. Accordingly I’ve decided to resign as a contractor. I hope no.10 hires more ppl w/ good geopolitical forecasting track records & that media learn to stop selective quoting — Andrew Sabisky (@AndrewSabisky) February 17, 2020 This saves Boris/Dom an ongoing embarrassment