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Month: February 2020

Are we being premature writing off Bernie’s chances against Trump?

Are we being premature writing off Bernie’s chances against Trump?

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The latest betting on Betfair has Trump as a 59% chance of being re-elected in November. This reflects a widespread view that Sanders is going to win the nomination but that when it comes to the election itself he’ll prove to be unelectable. Maybe that’s why the overall outcome betting has now moved towards Trump and certainly I have my doubts about the Dems choosing a candidate who would be 80 a few months after becoming president if elected. But…

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Ladbrokes make it 2/1 that RLB will finish third behind Starmer and Nandy in its leadership finishing order betting

Ladbrokes make it 2/1 that RLB will finish third behind Starmer and Nandy in its leadership finishing order betting

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Ladbrokes have this market on the correct finishing order in the Labour leadership market after the final round. The tweets by Matt Singh indicate that Rebecca Long Bailey is going to finish last but I’m always dubious when people talk about private polls and do not publish the polling tables. At 2/1, Starmer first, Nandy second, and Long Bailey third, it’s not exactly stellar odds when you remember the last public poll had Long Bailey in second place 25% ahead…

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Is the monarchy in trouble?

Is the monarchy in trouble?

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The British monarchy has its origins so far back in time, it’s easy to forget just how old it is. Its roots – in both Anglo-Saxon England and the ancient Kingdom of Alba – stretch back well over 1,000 years and it’s now comfortably into its third millennium. So, you could be forgiven for thinking it’s as stable and enduring as the rocks that form these islands themselves. You’d be wrong. The monarchy – as an institution – is far…

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Bernie heading for big Nevada victory and is going to be hard to stop winning the nomination

Bernie heading for big Nevada victory and is going to be hard to stop winning the nomination

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The only way he can be fail, surely, is if there’s an agreement on a single centrist contender This post from @Nigelb sums it up: Both billionaire egotists have declared there sticking around for Super Tuesday, so I think that’s it. Biden is weak enough that it would be a poor gamble for (say) Buttigieg to drop out and endorse him… and Warren on 9% just thanked Nevada for “keeping her in the race”…This race is analogous to the last…

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Bernie edges to odds-on for the nomination as the Nevada caucuses get ready to start

Bernie edges to odds-on for the nomination as the Nevada caucuses get ready to start

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It’s another big night in the fight for he WH2010 Democratic nomination with the caucuses in Nevada. We should start getting results at about 0300 GMT. Bernie goes into this latest with a very clear lead in the caucus polling. The latest RCP polling average is: Sanders 32.5% Buttigieg 16% Biden 16% Warren 14% Klobuchar 9.5% If the Sanders numbers are in line with the polling then I agree with David Herdson view in the previous thread. Mike Smithson

Early voting and a split field mean Sanders should be clear odds-on for the Dem nomination

Early voting and a split field mean Sanders should be clear odds-on for the Dem nomination

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Only a health scare is likely to stop him now Inevitably, all eyes on the race for the Democrat nomination are trained today on Nevada, which today becomes the third state to vote in the contest. Except it doesn’t. There’s still far too much attention paid in the media to ‘election day’ itself, which is now a highly misleading concept. Early voting has transformed how elections are conducted by both the public and political parties / candidates, (both here and…

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For Iowa caucus punters the wait continues

For Iowa caucus punters the wait continues

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Tomorrow sees Nevada the second state in the WH2020 process to hold a caucus to choose a nominee to fight Mr. Trump. The big difference between caucuses and a normal primary is that with the former the party machine, not the state government handles the elections which can be more complex than simple statewide ballots. Democratic Party officials in Nevada are determined that there should be no repetition of the Iowa mess-up where we still don’t know for sure whether…

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Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

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Your first big electoral test looks set to be the Scottish Assembly elections next year in a part of the UK where for decades your party was totally dominant. Recovering some of the ground lost there to the SNP might be an indicator that a general election victory could be in reach. The charts above from the Commons Library analysis of the last general election set out in stark terms how Scotland’s Westminster MP party distribution changed dramatically less than…

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