Trump’s impeachment has almost no impact on the WH2020 betting – he’s still an evens chance to win
And it might not even get to the Senate
The betdata/io chart shows the latest WH2020 betting and as can be seen Trump remains the evens favourite to secure re-election in November next year. The overnight apparently dramatic news that this is only the third time in US history that the House of Representatives has voted in this way was widely anticipated and, of course, only the Senate can remove him from office.
The upper house would require a two thirds majority and is controlled by the Republicans who are sticking firmly with their man. For Trump remains very popular with his base and GOP Senators seeking re-election do no not want to incur their wrath which could risk them not being renominated.
It might not even get as far as the Senate voting on it. Nancy Pelosi has indicated that she could defer forwarding it until such time as she’s satisfied with the Senate’s procedures for handling what is a judicial process. So Trump could remain the impeached President without the satisfaction of a Senate vote in his favour.
There are many battles ahead.