What happens when anti-CON voters decide to go tactical
There is little doubt that if the LDs are to salvage anything from from a hugely disappointing GE19 campaign a lot depends on what happens in Esher & Walton – the seat currently held by the Foreign Secretary and former BrexSec, Dominic Raab. A victory here would be the Portillo moment of the election and might just take some of the edge off Johnson’s likely victory.
The chart shows the result last time compared with with the two constituency polls that have been carried out – one at the start of November and one at the end.
Just about everything now depends on LAB voters and whether they decide to stick with their party or vote tactically.
Currently the Betfair sportsbook has the Tories on 1/2 with the LDs on 15/8. The latter was 11/4 on Monday. The odds are probably about right. If these polls are on the right lines, and both are in the same territory, then it is going to be close.
One thing’s for sure – there’ll be a big media presence at this constituency count.