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Month: November 2019

A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019

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There is a ghost which is stalking this election in the media coverage, and it is the spirit of 2017. Everywhere one looks right leaning journalists are fretting and not quite believing the polls. The spirit of Election 2017 and a good ghost for Labour it is too – “Oh Jeremy Corbyn !”. Everywhere one looks the written media is observing this election as a closish horse race “You can’t rely on labour leavers to not revert to type” twitter…

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The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

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SpprtingIndex The mood on the spread betting markets this morning has been sharply to the Tories with both LAB and the LDs seeing their projected seats numbers drop markedly. This follows a weekend of good polling news for Johnson with LAB and the LDs seeing disappointing drops in their poll shares. The picture is all of Johnson heading for a comfortable working majority. On Friday evening, as I reported here, I made my first big spread bet of the elections…

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Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

Betting on the Scottish battlegrounds

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Goodness knows I try not to offend. Among the more controversial posts that I have ever put up, however, was one that concerned the SNP’s results at the last election. I noted that the SNP had lost more seats than the Conservatives and that they came within a whisker of losing many more. Their strategic position for the next election looked terrible. This did not go down well with the nationalist fraternity. Yet here we are in 2019, facing that…

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It is possible Jeremy Corbyn really hates political bettors

It is possible Jeremy Corbyn really hates political bettors

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there would literally be one Leave leader and one Remain leader and I’m not making this up https://t.co/MfyMwtAtB9 — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) November 8, 2019 If the polls are broadly correct we are potentially only a few weeks from the start of the next Labour leadership contest, for some of us we’ve been betting on the identity of Jeremy Corbyn’s successor for around fifty months so these are exciting times, however there is a potential spanner in the works….

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Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

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A guest slot by GreenMachine A lot has happened since the 2017 election and the Northern Ireland Executive has been out of office for 3 years now, What will we see this in the election!? First of all we’re going to start with the more obvious results. Belfast West: S.F have held this seat since the 1980’s bar the 1992 election where the S.D.L.P won by several hundred votes. S.F regained control of Belfast West in 1997 (shortly after the Peace…

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Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

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YouGov English regional polling has LAB in 3rd place in the Eastern region the South East and South West We haven’t yet looked at the series of English regional polls that YouGov carried out last month and has only just published them.  This is the first time I can recall this form of polling being carried out across England and the results help us to see where parties are doing well. The South West has always been a key battleground…

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We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?

We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?

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Dark nights and dismal campaigning will not enthuse waverers There are four main factors in an election turnout: how important voters view the poll, how close they expect the result to be locally, how close they think it’ll be nationally, and what the prevailing local culture is towards voting. On that basis, you’d expect the general election to have a pretty decent turnout. Of the two national variables, there is genuinely a major issue at stake with Brexit, as well…

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Foxes and Hedgehogs – a tale of tactics without strategy

Foxes and Hedgehogs – a tale of tactics without strategy

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“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” (Sun Tzu). Something those Remainer MPs behind the Benn Act would do well to reflect on. However successful it was in stopping a Halloween No Deal exit and, arguably, forcing Boris to negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement he could sell to his party, its effect has been to put the Tories in a strong position as they embark on their General Election campaign. How so? It allows Boris to say that he:- Got the Withdrawal Agreement…

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