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Month: November 2019

For how long can Johnson continue to defy gravity?

For how long can Johnson continue to defy gravity?

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He needs to keep running and not look down for four weeks Wile E Coyote has enjoyed so many lives that even a cat would feel embarrassed, although perhaps ‘enjoyed’ isn’t quite the right word. Time and again over decades he’s been crushed, burned and fallen from a great height but always to return, unharmed, in pursuit of his great but unattainable aim. With such resilience and obsession, he should have been a politician. We should add one other politician’s…

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Election Battlegrounds: Guzzledown

Election Battlegrounds: Guzzledown

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Political Betting doesn’t often discuss exhibitions of 18th century art, but I can highly recommend the Hogarth exhibition currently showing at the commendably eccentric Soane Museum in London. It is a very rare opportunity to see in one place all of Hogarth’s masterly sequences of ‘Modern Moral Subjects’, including A Rake’s Progress, A Harlot’s Progress, and Marriage A-La-Mode. Most topical, though, is The Humours of an Election (1754-1755), depicting a (literally) hard-fought election in the two-member constituency of Guzzledown, Oxfordshire….

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Focus on Wokingham where two ex-CON MPs are slugging it out against each other

Focus on Wokingham where two ex-CON MPs are slugging it out against each other

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The longstanding Brexiteer versus the defector to the LDs The Berkshire constituency of Wokingham is one of the most intriguing battle grounds at the General Election for it is where the veteran Brexiteer, John Redwood, is seeking to defend his seat against the remain backing former CON MP from the neighbouring constituency, Philip Lee. Redwood has been MP there since 1987. It will be recalled that when Parliament resumed in September it was while Johnson was speaking that Phillip Lee…

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The voting polling’s bad for LAB but Corbyn’s ratings are even worse

The voting polling’s bad for LAB but Corbyn’s ratings are even worse

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Above is the Wikipedia list of all the published polls since the general election campaign began. The overall picture is of not that much variation with the Tories in a range of 37-42%,  LAB 27-31% and the LDs 15-17%. The one party where there’s a lot of variance is Brexit which has a polling range of 4-10%. That’s largely explained by YouGov’s methodology change that factors in the fact that Farage’s party will be only be contesting non-CON seats. Generally…

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The GE2019 podcast from Keiran Pedley – now with Ipsos MORI

The GE2019 podcast from Keiran Pedley – now with Ipsos MORI

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Keiran Pedley, familiar to PBers through his longstanding PB/PollingMatters podcast series is now doing a general election series for the pollster, Ipsos MORI, with home he works. Each week he’ll inviting a range of figures to add to our understanding of what’s happening. This is the first. I am sure we all wish Kieran the best of luck.   Follow @KeiranPedley Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Just six months ago Betfair punters were making LAB the favourite to win most seats

Just six months ago Betfair punters were making LAB the favourite to win most seats

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How things can change rapidly in politics The above betdata.io chart shows how views of the general election “seat winner” market have changed so much in the past six months. On May 12th Corbyn’s party was rated as a 48.1% chance ahead of what was then TMay’s Tories. This reflected the polling. The Tories failed to record a single polling lead between April 5th and May 30th. That was all a time when the party was totally divided by Brexit…

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Prof John Curtice does not make a prediction – Summing up where we are

Prof John Curtice does not make a prediction – Summing up where we are

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Prof John Curtice “The SNP are likely to take seats in Scotland, the @LibDems will take seats but the @Conservatives are 10pts ahead. If these polls are played out as they stand, they will get a majority. This however is not a prediction”. #PSABriefing pic.twitter.com/dSSkJ3pUY8 — The Political Studies Association (@PolStudiesAssoc) November 14, 2019 Punters give Johnson a 62% chance of a majority