Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU by the end of the month at 26%
But read the detailed betting rules
The big Brexit betting market as seen above in the betdata.io chart is whether Johnson will achieve his objective of an October 31st exit as per the Article 50 deadline.
Like in all political bets it is important to read Betfair’s detailed rules of the market which in this case are:
“For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK. Examples of when this might occur include, but are not limited, to: the date specified in a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU; the end of the negotiating period as set out by Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (or any extension to this time period); or the date of the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act. If more than one of these events were to occur, this market will be settled on the first of these events to occur. In the case of Article 50 being extended past 31/10/19, via a unanimous vote by all EU Member States, we will settle this market based on the extended date. This market will settle when the UK leaves the EU even if parts of the UK (e.g. Scotland, Northern Ireland) leave the UK or receive special status within the EU.”
So if the Benn act became operative and the PM’s letter was sent and accepted then NO would be the winner. The critical element is whether “treaties of the EU cease to apply to the UK”.
A lot depends on the European Council and we’ll get a clearer idea after that meeting and the PM’s response.
My reading, and I stand to be corrected, is that if an exit is agreed and a transitional period is put in place then the Treaties of the EU would still apply and NO should still win.
This is the current busiest UK political betting market and we can expect a lot of movement in the coming days.