Will Boris Johnson continue to be Prime Minister until the 19th of November 2019?

This is an interesting market from Ladbrokes, the one that caught my attention was Boris Johnson breaking George Canning’s record as the shortest serving Prime Minister.

My initial thought was to back this market because he’s clearly goaded the anti No Dealers to take drastic action to honour the 2016 referendum campaign to Leave with a deal and with his government threatening to be lawbreakers instead of lawmakers a temporary Prime Minister who would deliver an extension to Article 50 seemed likely.

22 named Con rebels. That leaves Boris notionally 41 short of a majority, even with the DUP and Elphicke – far beyond what could be retrieved with Labour rebels and independents.

Boris only gets his way if the Anti-No Dealers screw up. https://t.co/L03csKUjrI

— David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) September 2, 2019

But as David observes in the tweet the Parliamentary arithmetic isn’t even close a manageable minority government territory, so I wonder if Boris Johnson is going to try and engineer a general election.

Interesting.https://t.co/y85d8539E6

— TSE (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2019

Something is very much afoot. If @SebastianEPayne's report below is accurate then it's a better-than-even chance Johnson will seek an election vote this week.

I reckon the Tory Whips know the govt can't win a No Deal vote. Question is: what does Labour demand for their support? https://t.co/8rWZ8VenGK

— David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) September 2, 2019

So back to that 3/1 bet? I think you can get better proxy bets, or already have them if you think about it, because there’s a few possibilities that it happens. The anti No Deal alliance could install someone else to ensure No Deal is honoured so you should be looking at the next PM markets and finding value there. There’s also the possibility of Boris Johnson losing power at the next general election, even if the Tory party wins the most seats and most votes but anti No Dealers win more votes and/or seats. Again there will be value in the next general election markets.

The fact Ladbrokes are offering such a market and we are discussing is an indictment on Boris Johnson, his advisers, and his Premiership.

TSE

PS – I think the value might be backing the 10/1 on Boris Johnson standing in another constituency if there’s no immediate general election. I suspect London will be horrific for the Tories at the general election and we could see the mother and father of political decapitations in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.  Boris Johnson certainly has the chutzpah to change the Tory party rules and allow himself to stand in another constituency without boundary changes. After all the strategy of Dominic Cummings is to abandon Tory seats in Remain strongholds and target Labour seats in Leave strongholds.