If you want to know who the Democratic nominee to be President will be, watch Iowa and New Hampshire. Why? Because it is extremely rare for the eventual candidate to fail to win one of those two two states. How rare? Well, let’s look at the history for a second: 2016 – Clinton won Iowa 2012 – Obama won both 2008 – Obama won Iowa 2004 – Kerry won both 2000 – Gore won both 1996 – Clinton won both…
In less febrile times, the police’s behaviour in Operation Midland ought to be a national scandal: a failure to understand that the police’s job is to investigate, properly and thoroughly, allegations not announce that they are credible simply because they would like them to be true or to gain publicity or to make up for their failure to investigate other child abuse allegations; a failure to provide all the relevant information to the court when obtaining search warrants; wasting public…
You see it happen regularly, on here and on twitter. A new opinion poll comes out, showing dramatic news. Immediately, we decamp to Electoral Calculus and Flavible, to discover that such a poll, if replicated at a general election, would produce a hung Parliament with Plaid Cymru the largest party, able to form a coalition with the Greens and Lady Sylvia Hermon. The oracles have spoken. “Cor blimey”, we expostulate. Why do we do it? At a time when the…
It could put a CON majority beyond reach Eight days ago after the LDs victory in overturning the Tory 19.5% majority in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election I noted that the significant feature had been the decision by the Greens and Plaid Cymru to stand aside. “Here, in this by election, there was only one option for voters who wanted to express their choice for a Remain party and that was the Lib Dems. My guess is this decision of the…
Never mind what the government should do: what will it do? Ravi Ashwin might not be the first name you think of as being of particular relevance to the Brexit denouement this October. However, his dismissal of Josh Buttler in the IPL this March is an excellent example of one side playing to the rules while the other played to the conventions of the game – and who went on to lose. Too much of the commentary around what’s likely…
Cummings/Johnson don’t have public opinion on their side There was a time when the Brexit tracker in every new Times/YouGov poll would get reported and discussed with people trying to read something into the changes week on week. That’s now long gone. Public opinion as measured by this tracker has remained pretty constant for “wrong” with over the past year the lead being mostly in a range of 6-11 points. Clearly those answering that Brexit was wrong have a very…
Time to be betting that Johnson is bluffing? The Betdata.io chart of movements on the Betfair exchange shows how punters are getting more and more convinced that here will be a no deal Brexit in 2019. This covers the past four months when so much has happened in British politics and no doubt things will be even more turbulent in the weeks ahead. At the moment I’m not convinced enough to bet. The huge down-side of a no deal exit,…
Comparing the new man with his predecssor With all the numbers coming out about the new government it is perhaps worth looking at how Johnson and his team are comparing with Theresa May for the period starting when she became prime minister in July 2016. Although the voting intention polling is looking pretty sound for the Conservatives a worry might be the leader ratings that Boris Johnson has been getting since assuming the keys of number 10. One question pollsters…