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Month: August 2019

Despite the dire polling, Jeremy Corbyn is not going anywhere

Despite the dire polling, Jeremy Corbyn is not going anywhere

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Barring accident or illness the Labour leader is certain to lead the party into the next election and is very likely to stay whatever the result may be If Labour was deadly serious about defeating the Tories at the next general election, Jeremy Corbyn would no longer be the party’s leader. The polling since Boris Johnson took over as Prime Minister and installed the most right-wing government the UK has ever seen tells exactly the same story that it told…

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The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effectiveness of Remain parties working together

The main lesson from the Brecon result: Demonstrating the effectiveness of Remain parties working together

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A model for the next General Election? Reflecting on the Brecon outcome the most striking feature which hasn’t really been commented on is that in a seat in Wales that PC felt able to step aside in order  to help defeat the pro-Brexit Tories. Given the relative closeness of the outcome it’s clear that this decision and that of the Green Party played a crucial part in this election and no doubt lessons will be learnt . We have a…

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It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

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For reference the result from GE2017 How other new PMs fared Tonight could be very interesting for political historians. This is the numbers of days in office before each Prime Minister lost a seat in a by-election.#BreconandRadnorshire pic.twitter.com/0teZ4tngfo — Kevin Lang (@kevin_lang) August 1, 2019 The Brexit Party plane pulling a flying banner over the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency where polls close in the by-election at 10pm pic.twitter.com/zX7x6IOppj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2019

BJohnson’s first Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings in NEGATIVE territory

BJohnson’s first Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings in NEGATIVE territory

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The historical comparisons don’t look good As well as the Ipsos voting numbers we have the firm’s satisfaction ratings which it has been asking in the same form since the 1970s. This means that there are records going  back decades and we can easily make comparisons. From the helpful chart above BJohnson becomes the first PM to take over mid-parliament with a negative rating – that is fewer people were satisfied with him than were dissatisfied.  This might not be…

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The BJohnson bounce and the LD recovery add to the pressure of the pressure on Corbyn

The BJohnson bounce and the LD recovery add to the pressure of the pressure on Corbyn

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Latest @IpsosMORI with changes on GE2017CON 34% (-9.5)LAB 24% (-17)LDs 20% (+12.4)BREX 9% (+9) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2019 Chart Evening Standard The Evening Standard in its reporting of the latest Ipsos-MORI poll leads on what is increasingly becoming a difficult narrative for the red team – their position in the post BJohnson voting polls and the very weak leader ratings their man has. The paper notes: The Ipsos MORI survey found 62 per cent of Britons now…

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Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess

Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess

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Biden was probably the debate “winner” There’ve been big movements in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting following last night’s second part of the latest round of debates including Biden and Kamala Harris. Unlike the first debate in June when Harris launched effectively herself with a biting attack on 76 year old Biden this time there was no repetition and she herself came under sharp fire. A month ago Harris got to a near 40% chance on the Betfair exchange which…

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