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Month: June 2019

Brexit: Some Inconvenient Facts that the Tories need to face

Brexit: Some Inconvenient Facts that the Tories need to face

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“A great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the need for illusion is deep” – Saul Bellow There are illusions aplenty amongst Tory MPs about how Brexit is going to be achieved by the current candidates for leader, Boris chief among them. Perhaps – like Baldrick – he has a cunning plan. One can but hope. It seems almost indecently rude to spoil these illusions with something as vulgar as facts. But here goes, anyway. 1. There is…

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Brecon & Radnorshire: the by-election that never was?

Brecon & Radnorshire: the by-election that never was?

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There’s a good chance it will be overtaken by a general election The problem with being spoilt for excitement politically (apart from the complete wreckage of the party system, trust in politics and – who knows – maybe the country itself) is that there’s no time to sit back and appreciate what’s just gone before the next instalment arrives. While that might be irritating for commentators, it has real practical effects too. The Brecon & Radnorshire recall petition has unseated…

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The Tory booted out of his Brecon & Radnorshire seat by the recall petition plans to stand again for his party in the by-election

The Tory booted out of his Brecon & Radnorshire seat by the recall petition plans to stand again for his party in the by-election

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Brecon & Radnorshire 1979-2017 from David Cowling Chris Davies also tells me he didn’t think about not standing in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election and that he sees it as opportunity to regain constituents’ trust. — Adrian Masters (@adrianmasters84) June 21, 2019 Chris Davies confirms to me that he has the support of his party for standing again in Brecon and Radnorshire. He says he’s had calls today from both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt who’ve backed him. — Adrian…

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The Brecon & Radnorshire recall petition succeeds and an early by-election test for the new CON leader is in prospect

The Brecon & Radnorshire recall petition succeeds and an early by-election test for the new CON leader is in prospect

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The result for the Chris Davies by election vote is announced. More on @ITVWales later pic.twitter.com/PC24Ex9XqM — Timbo (@TimboChannel405) June 21, 2019 Expect it to take place on July 25 or August 1st So the the B&R recall petition has succeeded though the number signing, 19% was somewhat below the 27% that we saw in Peterborough. This mean a by-election which is likely to happen at the end of July or in early August – just after the new CON…

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For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

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Never before has a party membership chosen a PM We are now at a unique stage in British political history when the members of a particular party will by postal ballot decide who the next prime minister shall be. The decisions that members will take are of a different magnitude from other party leadership contests. So we need to see new “final two” CON member polling to establish whether there has been any shift now that we know which two…

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Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON leader since the war

Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON leader since the war

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The YouGov CON members poll on previous CON leaders So it is going to be Johnson and Hunt   who will be on the postal ballot of CON members. To give us an idea of how the current membership view leadership issue I’ve produced the above chart from this month’s YouGov CON members polls. The most negative rating is given to Heath who arguably led his party to the most significant victory in June 1970 ending the first Wilson government.  This…

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Johnson’s first battle as PM with the BXP looks set to be at Brecon & Radnor within a week of him getting the job

Johnson’s first battle as PM with the BXP looks set to be at Brecon & Radnor within a week of him getting the job

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Farage’s favourite pollster, Survation, has already been active At 5pm today the six recall petition centres across the B&R constituency will close their doors and late tomorrow morning the sitting CON MP will learn whether or not 10% of those on the electoral roll have signed the petition demanding his recall. If the total tops the required number then the Speaker will be informed formally and a vacancy will be declared. The petition follows the conviction of the CON MP…

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