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Month: June 2019

This is a good moment to recall the MP stage of the 2001 Tory leadership election when Portillo missed the cut by just one vote

This is a good moment to recall the MP stage of the 2001 Tory leadership election when Portillo missed the cut by just one vote

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How IDS got into the members’ ballot with fewer than a third of the MP votes The very first time the CON leadership election procedure that we are seeing at the moment was used was in 2001 in the aftermath of Tony Blair’s second successive landslide general election victory. The longstanding favourite and the person expected to take the crown was Michael Portillo who had lost his Enfield seat at GE1997. He returned to the Commons in a by-election and…

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Now we are down to the final 4 and CON MPs reject the contender deemed to have “won” last night’s debate

Now we are down to the final 4 and CON MPs reject the contender deemed to have “won” last night’s debate

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CON leadership vote 3rd round of MPsGove 51Hunt 54Javid 38Johnson 143Stewart 27 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019 So Tory MPs exclude the contender most likely to reach out to centre ground voters. Crazy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019

YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin

YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin

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This raises doubts over BoJo’s ability to win converts YouGov has published what appears to be the only poll carried out on last night’s CON leader debates. The main details are in the YouGov table above. While there’s little doubt that the member for Uxbridge does well with Tory voters but the party is going to need much more than them in a general election and that presents something of a dilemma.  That just 7% of Remain voters gave their…

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From a media perspective Team Boris will regard last night as job well done

From a media perspective Team Boris will regard last night as job well done

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He’s helped by the size of the field The Boris plan of refusing almost all media invitations meant that last night was the first time anybody had seen him facing scrutiny since TMay announced that she was going. But the nature of the programme with the BBC feeling it had to bring in questions from studios all over the country meant that the time spent with the overwhelming betting favourite was very limited. I found him less than convincing and…

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If punters have this right the big loser in the CON debate was Stewart – down from a 9% chance to a 4% one

If punters have this right the big loser in the CON debate was Stewart – down from a 9% chance to a 4% one

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Betfair exchange via Betdata.io For those who didn’t watch just check out the comments on the previous thread. Overall I don’t think it has changed much. For me the most impressive performers were Hunt and Javid. Stewart didn’t meet expectations and hence his decline in the betting. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Maybe Raab’s the one with the best chance of stopping Johnson?

Maybe Raab’s the one with the best chance of stopping Johnson?

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Kitchen Cabinet on choosing between the illness and the cure Boris Johnson’s election to the Conservative leadership looks almost assured. As I mentioned on a previous thread, Gavin Williamson looks to have done wonders for BoJo’s election prospects. If you are a Boris hater, I might have some good news for you. There is a way he may not be elected. The bad news (for many) is that the only way for that to happen is to have him face…

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The CON race is not now about who wins but whether the next PM and leader gets properly tested and scrutinised

The CON race is not now about who wins but whether the next PM and leader gets properly tested and scrutinised

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With Hunt as his postal ballot opponent he’d have a much softer ride than facing Stewart The recent history of PMs getting the job in a non-contested elections is not a good one. Gordon Brown got his coronation in June 2007 and avoided the probing that would possibly have highlighted his many vulnerabilities. The same happened in July 2016 with TMay. Both of them,  I’d  argue, would have been better PMs and better general election campaigners if they had had…

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