Some analysis of the Tory leadership race and why the hardline No Deal Brexiteers might end up struggling in the MP stage of voting
Friday leadership race update (using @GuidoFawkes totals):
Johnson 45
Gove 30
Hunt 27
Raab 22
Javid 16
Hancock 12
Harper 6
McVey 5
Stewart 5
Leadsom 3
Gyimah 3— Dom Walsh (@DomWalsh13) June 7, 2019
Here's how the support for the different candidates stacks up according to voting record on the deal. As a whole, rebels breaking heavily for Johnson and Raab – but Johnson is also doing well with pro-deal MPs, especially junior ministers: pic.twitter.com/ltbAZS4gbI
— Dom Walsh (@DomWalsh13) June 7, 2019
174 MPs have declared; 139 MPs have not declared. The undeclared are:
– 86/198 of those who've voted for the deal 3 times
– 14/39 of those who switched at MV2
– 19/42 of those who switched at MV3
– 17/28 of the ERG 'Spartans'
– 3/6 of 2nd Ref supporters pic.twitter.com/s5sx2NlOke— Dom Walsh (@DomWalsh13) June 7, 2019
So most of those who've not declared are those who haven't rebelled on the deal. Potentially a challenge for the more hardline Brexiteer candidates: pic.twitter.com/QdQt4E60Bn
— Dom Walsh (@DomWalsh13) June 7, 2019
This analysis is great and as the final tweet implies bad news for the No Deal candidates. Of course this is on the assumption that everyone who has declared publicly actually does vote that way, that might turn out to be a heroic assumption.
H/T to Richard Nabavi for alerting me to these figures.