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Month: February 2019

Six weeks tomorrow could mark the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom as we know it

Six weeks tomorrow could mark the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom as we know it

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Pressure for Irish unification could just be the beginning One of the features of Brexit, particularly a no deal one, is the impact that it could have on the integrity of the United Kingdom. There has been polling already in Northern Ireland about how people would feel there about the Union in the event of a no deal Brexit. The numbers don’t look good for those backing the union and under the Good Friday Agreement the Secretary of State for…

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Long standing Brexiteer, Corbyn, needs more than just threats if he’s to budge on a referendum

Long standing Brexiteer, Corbyn, needs more than just threats if he’s to budge on a referendum

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There comes a time when threats to quit need to be followed up with actions or else they will just be ignored pic.twitter.com/sPBxu4LcAa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 13, 2019 moment of truth is looming for Labour rebels wanting to start a new party, multiple sources say the schism will come if and when Corbyn doesn’t support amendment for 2nd referendum in two weeks time…which will also trigger several frontbench resignations https://t.co/joGWpknxMG — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) February 14, 2019…

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Based on current Betfair WH2016 odds why Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke is the most likely Democratic VP pick

Based on current Betfair WH2016 odds why Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke is the most likely Democratic VP pick

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This is from a discussion on Nate’s site – Fivethirtyeight on Beto O’Rourke’s chances of becoming his party’s Vice Presidential nominee. This is, of course, chosen by the nominee for President and takes place just before the convention. He notes. Here’s why: 1) There’s about a 55 percent chance (per Betfair) that the nominee will not be a white dude. 2) If the nominee is not a white dude, the VP probably will be a white dude. 3) The other…

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Chris Grayling must surely be a good bet to be next Cabinet minister out

Chris Grayling must surely be a good bet to be next Cabinet minister out

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I’ve just got 9/1 on Betfair that Chris Grayling will be the next cabinet minister out. It is not just the latest ferry company without ships saga but a whole history of cock-ups that we’ve seen. How he escaped unscathed from the last summer’s new rail table calamity was amazing. This lunchtime Corbyn, in one of his best PMQs ever, forensically used his six questions to put TMay under severe pressure. He came out winner big time. I should imagine…

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The great Brexiters gamble – go with TMay’s deal or risking Brexit not happening at all

The great Brexiters gamble – go with TMay’s deal or risking Brexit not happening at all

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange There’s an intriguing piece in the FT by George Parker and Henry Mance about an overheard conversation in Brussels by TMay’s Chief Negotiator, Olly Robbins which set out a different approach to put pressure on the hardliners. Apparently they will be told – back the deal or risk a lengthy delay during which anything could happen. That broadly replaces what had appeared to be the strategy of making the choice between what’s…

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TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters

TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange It’s moved from a 12.8% chance to a 26% one in just three weeks Given what we know about TMay and how unbending she is I’m becoming increasingly convinced that when the time runs out at 11pm on March 29th the UK will in fact be leaving the EU. She’s going to the wire and the message to MPs of all parties is that if the deal is not approved by then…

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TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn

TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn

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The most likely outcome from our new MRP constituency model see the Tories gaining just four seats in a snap election: not nearly enough to solve May’s Brexit woesCon: 321 seats (+4 from GE2017)Lab: 250 (-12)SNP: 39 (+4)LD: 16 (+4)Other – 7 (+1)https://t.co/PPl3yGL2Kq pic.twitter.com/vL2fSHyBtz — YouGov (@YouGov) February 11, 2019 REVISED. New Kantar poll sees movement broadly in line with last week's @OpiniumResearch 7% CON lead surveyCON 40%+5LAB 35%-3LD 10%+1UKIP 3%-3Carried out 7-11 Feb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12,…

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The search for a definition of BINO – “Brexit in Name Only”

The search for a definition of BINO – “Brexit in Name Only”

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One of the most controversial terms in the current UK political climate is BINO – Brexit in Name only. Its usage derives from a previous US election where Republicans not deemed to be ideologically pure were dismissed as RINOs – Republican in Name Only. To the hardline anti-EUer BINO is a way categorising any move not thought to be pure enough as being a sell-out. To the hardline Remainers it raises the question of “what the hell is the point?”….

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