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Month: January 2019

The May government’s net satisfaction ratings are on par with Thatcher’s and Cameron’s

The May government’s net satisfaction ratings are on par with Thatcher’s and Cameron’s

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Only the Blair government’s net average ratings were better Governments are pretty much always unpopular. The anonymous grinding mills of policy and administration rarely inspire enthusiasm, much less devotion. Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver once joked that the US Congress was less popular than Satan, a claim that as far as I can find hasn’t been tested by any pollster (perhaps something for Lord Ashcroft to consider during his American travels). In 2013 during a government shutdown the great American public…

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Trump’s Shutdown: Who blinks, who loses?

Trump’s Shutdown: Who blinks, who loses?

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How long can neither side budge with 400,000 federal employees furloughed? Thirteen months to the first elections in the primary campaigns for next year’s US presidential vote might seem a long way off when so much can and will happen in the UK over the next thirteen weeks, never mind months. That, however, is because Brexit is exceptional. Lifting our eyes a little, the partial federal shutdown resulting from the stalemate between Trump and Congress over funding for his Wall…

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Loose change. The MPs who Theresa May needs to get on board

Loose change. The MPs who Theresa May needs to get on board

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NEW: Theresa May's allies privately concede they are on course to lose the meaningful vote due 12 days from now. Senior Tories are gaming a second vote or another delay. Downing Street insider: “If we have to have the vote 30 times, we will" https://t.co/1VcGLtfnJl — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) January 3, 2019 Senior ministers are urging May to set a departure date soon after March 29th to convince rebels a new leader can take over the next stage of Brexit…

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Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020 more challenging for Bernie and non-mainstream contenders

Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020 more challenging for Bernie and non-mainstream contenders

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Expect fewer caucuses & big states coming earlier As we look towards 2020 for the next White House Race leading figures within the Democratic party are ready to follow Elizabeth Warren and put their hats into the ring in the battle to be the nominee. Although the primaries will start off, as usual, with the caucasus in Iowa and the full primary in New Hampshire the overall structure is going to be very different this time which could effect the…

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Now in Scotland we are getting threats of de-selection for pro-Brexit CON MPs

Now in Scotland we are getting threats of de-selection for pro-Brexit CON MPs

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The start of trend as we get closer? The paper, the National, it should be pointed out is a strong supporter of the SNP but having said that this does raise a real issue in the one part of the UK where the Tories had real success at GE2017. Also today we’ve had this from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus which looks grim for LAB north of the border. As I’ve said repeatedly LAB has to recover in Scotland if it…

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Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting following claims of sexual harassment within his last campaign

Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting following claims of sexual harassment within his last campaign

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Not so long ago Bernie was favourite The question of whether Bernie Sanders will run in WH2020 has been put in doubt following claims by staffers of sexual harassment during his 2016 campaign. Politico is reporting: “…that more than two dozen women and men who worked on Sanders’ 2016 campaign sent a letter last Sunday to senior Sanders officials asking for a meeting to “discuss the issue of sexual violence and harassment on the 2016 campaign, for the purpose of…

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Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the betting chances of one happening drop to 32%

Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the betting chances of one happening drop to 32%

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The big Brexit political betting movement has been a sharp fall in the betting chances of a second referendum taking place during 2019. The Betfair exchange odds plunged from nearly 40% to just 26% at about 10pm last night. Since then there’s been something of a recovery but at 32.5% as I write is still considerably lower than what it was. The Corbyn/Milne gang’s resistance in the face of strong evidence a about how party members view the issue is…

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New polling finds just 28% of GE2017 LAB voters support the party’s stance on Brexit

New polling finds just 28% of GE2017 LAB voters support the party’s stance on Brexit

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And Corbyn slumps to a post-GE2017 YouGov leader rating low New polling data just made available on the YouGov website shows the scale of the gamble LAB is taking with the party’s stance on Brexit. To the question “Do you support or oppose the stance that the Labour party have taken towards Brexit?” GE2017 LAB voters split by 28% to 25% on whether they supported or opposed. This is an incredibly low proportion given how important Brexit dominates current politics…

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