One of the arguments that pro-second referendum Tory MPs are using at the moment is that the Brexit deal basically splits the Tories and Labour gets off scot free in spite of its equivocation and huge policy differences. So it is being said that if there was a referendum then it would split Labour as well.

For Corbyn’s equivocation on Brexit and the referendum has really cost the party almost nothing so far and indeed the polling finds that those wanting a referendum are much more likely to support Mr Corbyn than Mrs May.

This is in spite of the bland, read it either way, language that is coming from the Labour leadership about the issue. At the weekend Corbyn described it as an “option for the future” while at the Party Conference in September he simply said he would back members though he was careful not to make a commitment beyond that.

The party’s approach has enabled it to do remarkably well since the June 23rd 2016 in managing to appeal to both sides. A second referendum, it is argued, would be much more difficult for Labour’s “riding two horses at the same time” approach to succeed.

The other interesting second referendum development has seen leading CON figures like Raab and others saying that remaining in the EU would be a better alternative than the deal that TMay has negotiated.

Maybe that is just rhetoric to put pressure on a prime minister but it’s certainly focuses greater attention on the second referendum notion.

I’m coming to the view increasingly that a second referendum might just happen should the deal get rejected by MPs by an overwhelming majority. As a result I’ve had a little flutter that one will take place before the end of next year at odds of 37%.

Mike Smithson

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Tweet