Don’t be seduced by massive Johnson leads. History suggests Boris isn’t as personally popular as the polls would have you believe.

The Times reported earlier on this week that

An aide to the campaigning guru Sir Lynton Crosby was seen at Boris Johnson’s home yesterday morning, hours before his conference rally. In the clearest sign yet of how closely the former foreign secretary is working with Sir Lynton’s company, Mimi Randolph, a staffer at CTF Partners, was pictured leaving his Oxfordshire home. She is understood to have helped to organise his speech in Birmingham.

Mark Fullbrook, whose surname provides the “F” initial for CTF, also had a reserved space at Mr Johnson’s packed-out rally.

Sir Lynton masterminded Mr Johnson’s two successful campaigns to be London mayor before running David Cameron’s 2015 general election campaign. But he also worked on the Tories’ disastrous general election campaign last year.

It is understandable that Boris Johnson is getting those who helped him win the London Mayoralty twice to work for him again in his aim to become the next Prime Minister but look at the chart below.

Now I can imagine the retort of the supporters of Boris is that well he won even if his lead was overstated but with the current electoral geography, where a 1% swing at the next general election can mean anything from a Tory majority to a Labour led government then accurate polling is essential. It is possible for the Tories to win most votes and seats and still lose power at the next election.

We learned at the last election that the Tories having an overrated leader produces a sub-optimal result for the Tories.

TSE