With just over six months to go until Brexit day YouGov looks where the public stands
1/ Public opinion has drifted slightly against Brexit. On average this year there has been a 3 point lead of those who think Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit over those who think Britain was right to do so https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/yaBm2gLrEP
— YouGov (@YouGov) September 12, 2018
2/ While Theresa May comes in for constant criticism over the Brexit negotiations, few Brits (22-27%) actually think that a different leader would have done any better https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/RbjRgKG31O
— YouGov (@YouGov) September 12, 2018
3/ 61% of Leave voters currently think that Theresa May is aiming for a Brexit that is too soft https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/uKp3wMOS4m
— YouGov (@YouGov) September 12, 2018
4/ Which Brexit scenario would please the most Britons? In net terms it's leaving with a basic deal and then negotiating a free trade deal (+2), but in gross terms it's remaining in the EU after all (39% happy)https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/KXY6Bswtp0
— YouGov (@YouGov) September 12, 2018
Some good news for Theresa May?
There is an overwhelming perception that the Brexit negotiations are not turning out well. In our most recent tracker 73% of the public thought the negations were going badly, including majorities of both Remainers and Leavers, and both Tory and Labour supporters. Only 22% of people now think that it is likely that a deal will be struck in time for Britain to leave the EU in March 2019.
A majority (55%) think that the EU has had the upper hand in negotiations, around a quarter (24%) think there has been give-and-take on both sides and just 2% think the UK seems to have the advantage. Only 8% of people expect the government to get the sort of Brexit they have said they want – while approaching three in ten (28%) expect them to end up agreeing a deal for a softer Brexit than they want, and around the same proportion (27%) expect no deal at all.
However, these deeply negative judgements are not placed wholly at Theresa May’s door. Four in ten (42%) respondents think that any other leader would have done just as badly as May, compared to just over a quarter (27%) who believe someone else could have done better.
Neither is the perceived poor progress of negotiations necessarily seen as a reason to replace May. Just over one in five (22%) people now think an alternative leader would get a better Brexit deal, while over half (54%) think that a different leader would not be able to do any better in the time available.
My take from this poll is that if Mrs May gets a sub-optimal deal or no deal she personally won’t take a hit, low expectations may help her in the long term.
For those wishing for the UK to Remain in the UK that Bregret lead isn’t large enough to demand let alone win another referendum. I suspect the Bregret lead will increase a lot in the event of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit. Britons will need to experience the reality of a Hard Brexit if there’s to be any chance of overturning Brexit.