Is Michael Gove about to break the golden rule about laying the favourite to be next Tory leader?

In the last 24 hours the major betting news has been Michael Gove becoming the favourite in the next Tory leader market, both Betfair and Ladbrokes have seen this shift.

For those of us who have been laying both Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg this is great news and seemingly inevitable given the history of laying the favourite for the Tory leader and their own flaws. This morning Boris was rating lower than Matt Hancock and James Brokenshire in a ConHome poll.

I can see Gove appealing to the Cameroon wing (Brexit apart there’s not much difference in the political philosophies of Cameron and Gove) and the ERG win who expect Gove to deliver Brexit. Gove’s also one of the few Ministers on top of their brief and looking competent which should help his leadership ambitions.

I still have some doubts about Michael Gove becoming Tory leader he’s annoyed and betrayed far too many people, as David Cameron, Boris Johnson, and the Scottish fishing industry will attest to.

There’s also Gove’s public perception, David Cameron on Sir Lynton Crosby’s instruction had to demote Gove to a hidden role to help David Cameron win a majority in 2015. More than a few MPs will remember that.

But Gove’s been here before, a month before David Cameron resigned Gove was leading the ConHome leader polls so he might be peaking too soon once again. 

Sajid Javid appears to be the coming man having been an outsider just a few weeks ago, for those of us who anticipated his ascension to Home Secretary this is a profitable trend.

This maybe my book talking but if there’s a leadership contest this year then I expect the winner to be one of Gove, Hunt, and Javid, the latter would not only be profitable but some on the left would literally go (coco)nuts.

TSE