Nine days after the Pennsylvania special election the Republicans conced defeat in Congressional District won by Trump with 20% margin AT WH2016https://t.co/1kdsQkmI3u
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2018
What had been a 627 vote lead on the night became more than 800
Overnight the GOP contender in last week’s Pennsylvania special Congressional election, Rick Saccone, conceded defeat which means that the sensational victory by the Democrats in a District won by Trump by a 20% margin at the last presidential election has been confirmed.
The margin was incredibly tight. With more that 228k votes cast the margin on the night was 627 votes. That’s now move out to 800+
In the final days before before the election the betting switched a fair bit between the Republican and the Democratic contenders because the polls were so split.
I, like many other than PB, took the view that in a 50-50 situation the best betting option is the one with the longest price. This was the right betting strategy even for those who ended up backing the Republican and losing.
I was fortunate that I placed my bets on the Democrat when he was at 2.4 on Betfair or quite a bit longer than evens.
One thing that we are learning about betting on American politics is that it can take time to settle the markets if there is a close outcome. Bookies have learnt by hard experience not to pay out on the basis of the on the night winner.
One of the confusing factors for British punters is that the postal votes can be counted a week our so after the main count.