Time is running out for Mrs May to be removed this year, the same applies to a second referendum this year, ergo you should bet accordingly. William Hill have a range of markets up and to be honest most of them seem very unappealing, but if I had to choose from this market, I’d go for the 1/100 on there being no 2nd EU In/Out referendum in 2017 and the 1/12 on Theresa May still being PM on the 1st…
Mrs May should appoint an ex military man as her new Party Chairman Ladbrokes have a market on who the next Chairman or Chairwoman of the the Tory party will be. It seems Sir Patrick McLoughlin will be standing down following his role in the disastrous general election campaign and the farce at the Tory conference when a ‘comedian’ interrupted Mrs May and the background behind Mrs May start falling apart, which in no way was symbolic for the shambles…
Cyclefree sticks her neck out and gives her choices Scepticism (Euroscepticism, certainly) has a bad press these days. But being sceptical of received wisdom, of grand plans and theories, of the assumption that because matters have always been this way, this is how they should remain, is a good thing. At its best, it’s the courage to ask “Why?”and “Why not?” We could have done with more of it when Mrs May came out with her alliterative but empty “Brexit…
The field is too clogged up with the debris and echoes of 2016 One of the enduring mysteries of political betting is the continuing strength of David Miliband in the Next Labour Leader market. Despite his not having sat in the Commons for four and a half years, despite his showing no inclination to return, despite there being little opportunity to return in the near term, despite his politics now being completely out of line with a Labour Party whose…
Above is my annotated version of the latest YouGov summary chart showing the top line responses since the referendum when the the firm’s tracker question was asked. The question is in exactly the same form every time and reads “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” I’ve put a little green tick against those polls where more thought it was right than wrong and a red one alongside where more…
Two days ago in my post on why there would not be a general election until 2022 I observed that there have been very few by elections in CON held seats in recent times. Tory MPs have been a lot healthier than LAB ones. What CON by-elections defences there have been have been caused by other factors such as the weird resignation by the then shadow Home Secretary David Davis in 2008 so he could fight his own seat for…
Betdata.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Ladbrokes has some new markets up on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations which look interesting but I’m not sure if any of them offer any value. The options are above with 5/4 being offered on no deal being agreed before the Article 50 deadline 18 months on from now. Note the way the bookie is defining what a deal actually is. The 4/1 on Britain still being a member of the EU at the end of 2019 and whether…