Paddy Power have a market up on who out of Boris Johnson and Phil Hammond will leave their cabinet position first. I’ve spent the  last couple of  hours thinking about this market, and trying to come to a definitive view.

Both ministers have proven to be the gravest disappointments since Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, so I can see the arguments for removing both from their current positions, but which will go first, as I can’t see her changing both her Chancellor and Foreign Secretary in the same reshuffle without it causing her substantial problems on the vote of confidence front.

Factoring in it might be Theresa May who is likely to decide which of them goes first makes me even more wary on betting on this market. Time and time again she has proven she has only poor political judgment and will put herself ahead of the country and party, such as during the general election campaign when Mrs May and her staff kept on sidelining Philip Hammond, which allowed Labour’s economic plans to go largely unchallenged.  It isn’t hard to see Mrs May sacrificing one of Hammond or Johnson to save her own skin.

I’ve decided I will be backing Philip Hammond in this market, because the hardcore Leavers have it in for him, such as John Redwood’s bit of epic stupidity this week and coupled with Mr Hammond’s avoidable errors. I’m glad Paddy Power restrict me to small sums online on their political markets, I wouldn’t be comfortable staking large amounts on this market.

TSE