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Month: September 2017

Taking the 33/1 on Sir Patrick McLoughlin as the next cabinet minister to resign

Taking the 33/1 on Sir Patrick McLoughlin as the next cabinet minister to resign

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Earlier on this week I wrote that I wanted to back Sir Patrick McLoughlin as next out of the cabinet market, but not at 10/1, one of PB’s most astute gamblers, Richard Nabavi has flagged up to me that Betway are offering 33/1 on Sir Patrick being the next cabinet minister to resign. Now this is market is slightly different to the marker offered by Ladbrokes, as the rules of the Betway market means the minister has to resign rather than be…

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The Lord Adonis guide to predicting elections: The best leader wins – nothing else matters

The Lord Adonis guide to predicting elections: The best leader wins – nothing else matters

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The LAB peer and former cabinet minister, Andrew Adonis, has a fascinating essay in the latest edition of Prospect on the best guide to election forecasting. His conclusion is encapsulated in the headline above – the party with the leader perceived to be best wins and nothing else matters. He opens by recalling a Guardian article by Jonathan Freedland when Brown was PM and when many in the Labour party were demanding a new debate on “the issues” “Freedland cautioned…

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The Strange Rise of Jacob Rees-Mogg

The Strange Rise of Jacob Rees-Mogg

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David Herdson on the man who opposes abortion & gay marriage Of all the odd stories to have infected the Silly Season, none has been odder than the promotion of Jacob Rees-Mogg to be the next Leader of the Conservatives and, quite possibly along with it, Prime Minister. The oddness is not so much the story itself but the crossover into the betting markets. He is widely quoted at about 8/1 for the premiership, with only Paddy Power out on…

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Only 11% of the country are prepared for the Zombie apocalypse

Only 11% of the country are prepared for the Zombie apocalypse

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The UK is going to be woefully unprepared when the Zombies do rise up Only 11% of us have made plans for the Zombie apocalypse @YouGov finds. https://t.co/Ppv9qUU1fh pic.twitter.com/2jY8FNOFJD — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 8, 2017 YouGov: Of those 11% who do have zombie plans, 45% involve holing up somewhere, 43% consider supplies, just 13% killing zombies. pic.twitter.com/bmN1vCeuDa — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 8, 2017 YouGov: Of the 45% of zombie plans that involve holing up, the largest number intend to hole…

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The numbers game. Alastair Meeks on the forthcoming Parliamentary votes on Brexit

The numbers game. Alastair Meeks on the forthcoming Parliamentary votes on Brexit

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Picture credit: House of Commons twitter feed. Pundits often refer to hardfought Parliamentary votes being a numbers game.  The phrase comes from the name given in the US to lotteries.  In a hung Parliament, that is more apposite than usual. The current government does not enjoy the benefit of a Parliamentary majority and has some controversial measures to get through, particularly on Brexit.  So let’s take a look at some of the Parliamentary tribes that Mrs M will need to…

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Tonight’s sonnet like by elections

Tonight’s sonnet like by elections

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14 council by-elections tonight. Nine Tory defences, four Labour, one Lib Dem. Read @andrewteale's previews: https://t.co/ALHfhKqrDF — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) September 7, 2017 TSE

Germany: a predictable election?

Germany: a predictable election?

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Graphic: The most recent German polling, further details available here On the face of it, the German elections are remarkably unexciting. Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) has been leading in the polls ever since the last election, and her only serious challenger, Martin Schulz of the Social Democrats (SP), has fallen back after an early bounce. Four other parties are competing for third place: the free-market liberals (FDP), the ex-Communist Left (Linke), the Greens and the anti-immigrant AfD. The current…

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How Kim Jong-un makes Sir Michael Fallon Prime Minister

How Kim Jong-un makes Sir Michael Fallon Prime Minister

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Because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing, we once again could see a new Prime Minister. I’m not going to pretend I’m an expert on affairs on the Korean peninsula, my knowledge is pretty much based on the excellent book by Sir Max Hastings on The Korean War and what I have learned from the media. But if matters do escalate for a full blown (nuclear) war there then we will…

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