The Political Betting Local By-Election Conference Bounce Index : Week One
Over the next few weeks the major parties will be holding their party conferences and just as in every other week there are local by-elections all over the country, therefore for the duration of this Parliament we will be keeping track of how the parties do in the week of their party conferences. This week the Liberal Democrats met in Bournemouth and there were three local by-elections in Chesterfield, Oadby and Wigston and Waveney, so let’s see how they did and get a score to place on the board that Corbyn meeting in Brighton will need to match this time next week.
Holmebrook on Chesterfield (Lab defence)
Result: Liberal Democrat 510 (50% +22% on last time), Labour 435 (43% -8% on last time), Conservative 62 (6% -7% on last time), Independent 14 (1%, no candidate last time). No Other Party candidate this time (-7%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 75 (7%) on a swing of 15% from Labour to Liberal Democrat
Oadby, Uplands on Oadby and Wigston (Lab defence)
Result: Liberal Democrat 435 (39% unchanged on last time), Labour 384 (34% +3% on last time) , Conservative 295 (26% -3% on last time)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 51 (5%) on a swing of 1.5% from Liberal Democrat to Labour
Oulton Brand on Waveney (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 527 (50% +9% on last time), Labour 357 (34% +5% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 112 (11% -11% on last time), Liberal Democrat 54 (5%, no candidate last time) No Green Party candidate this time (-8%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 170 (16%) on a swing of 2% from Labour to Conservative
% Change on last time
Labour +1.46%, Liberal Democrats +9.99%, Conservatives -1.90%, UKIP -4.69%, Green -3.04%, Others -1.83%
So Vince scores +9.99% and sets the marker for Corbyn in next week’s local by-elections. Will the mantra of “for the many not the few” be repeated during his conference speech and will be enough to ensure that Labour poll an increase of greater than 10% in next week’s local by-elections? You’ll just have to wait and see.