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Month: August 2017

What a small pensions policy problem says about the current state of the SNP

What a small pensions policy problem says about the current state of the SNP

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Getting beyond rhetoric and identity politics These are unsettling times for Scottish nationalists. Just over a year ago, in the wake of the EU referendum, support in Remain-voting Scotland for independence was spiking. With the British government scrambling to form a coherent line on Brexit, the Scottish government hoped to turn the crisis into an opportunity by forcing the pace for a further independence referendum It hasn’t worked out that way at all. On the one hand, the Conservatives have…

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The good news for TMay’s successor is that her party’s due to exceed expectations next time

The good news for TMay’s successor is that her party’s due to exceed expectations next time

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The pattern appears to be clear One of the great things about monitoring election betting is that it gives you a good indication of what expectations were at a particular time and these can be interesting to look back at. The above is taken from what the spread betting seat levels were immediately before the five general elections since the millennium. As is shown in the chart the Tories seem to alternate between exceeding expectations or falling short of them….

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From Core TV – focus on PB, Brexit, the “Democrats”, the Tory leadership and more

From Core TV – focus on PB, Brexit, the “Democrats”, the Tory leadership and more

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No David Herdson with his usual Saturday morning post this morning but instead this TV feature on PB and many of the issues we’ve been discussing on the site over the past few weeks. This interview, by Rob Double, was recorded yesterday afternoon for Core TV the new online news and politics channel. My views and assessments won’t be unfamiliar to regular PBers. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The GE2017 gloss starts to come off Corbyn

The GE2017 gloss starts to come off Corbyn

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His YouGov favourability drops a net 13% on June For only the second time since the shock General Election outcome YouGov has carried out a favourability poll on the main parties and their leaders and the contrast with the post election survey is striking. Theresa May is moving up a notch though still in deep negative territory. She was a minus 34 – that’s down to 27%. Corbyn is going in the other direction. He was level pegging in June…

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Local By-Elections Review : August 17th 2017

Local By-Elections Review : August 17th 2017

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Park on Peterborough (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,713 (50% unchanged on last time), Conservative 1,375 (40% +5% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 176 (5% -3% on last time), Liberal Democrat 109 (3% +1% on last time), Green Party 83 (2% -2% on last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 338 (10%) on a swing from Lab to Con of 2.5% St. Mary’s on Forest Heath (Con defence) Result: Conservative 338 (50% +11% on last time), Labour 276…

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How Brexit is blinding us resulting in other massive issues being ignored

How Brexit is blinding us resulting in other massive issues being ignored

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  The Brexit obsession is diverting attention from other big challenges Since Britain voted to leave the EU, little of substance has happened in the decoupling process. Britain has served its Article 50 notice, the EU has established its preferred method of handling the negotiations, to which the British have acceded, and both sides have now published detailed papers on their preferred way of proceeding. The real fight, as Jeremy Corbyn said, starts here. If this is a phoney war,…

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Why the SNP’s MPs would probably not support a vote for an early general election

Why the SNP’s MPs would probably not support a vote for an early general election

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Sturgeon’s party has too many vulnerable seats Ever since it became clear that Mrs. May’s June election gamble had failed and she’d lost her majority there’s been lots of speculation that this parliament will not go through to its full term in June 2022. Maybe but there is the obstacle to surmount of the Fixed Term Parliament Act which was part of the coalition deal in 2010. The days when a PM can pop along to the Palace and call…

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Calling Theresa May a “Nazi” totally undermines Chapman’s anti-Brexit crusade

Calling Theresa May a “Nazi” totally undermines Chapman’s anti-Brexit crusade

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Threat almost over as far as ministers are concerned We’ve all been entertained this week by the stream of Tweets from the ex-political editor of the Mail and former chief aide to the BrexSec DDavis, James Chapman. It has livened up what had been a quiet August and provided some interesting revelations and attacks on his the man who was his boss until June. But moving to a position where he’s now describing the PM as a “Nazi” suggests he…

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