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Month: August 2017

UPDATED: On the face of it Vince Cable would be taking a risk doing anything with the Chapman “Democrats party” move

UPDATED: On the face of it Vince Cable would be taking a risk doing anything with the Chapman “Democrats party” move

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https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/897830203233374208 The big development in the Chapman “Democrats party” move is the above Tweet from the ex-Mail political editor and former chief aids to DDavis. There’s no doubt, as the YouGov polling above shows, that LD voters are much more likely to be pro-Remain than any other party and there would have been a risk for Cable in turning down the Chapman overtures. But the LDs are a well established party where there are still bitter memories of the SDP…

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The Ladbrokes 20/1 that the Brexit Secretary, DDavis, will be next Cabinet minister out looks like a value bet

The Ladbrokes 20/1 that the Brexit Secretary, DDavis, will be next Cabinet minister out looks like a value bet

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The @jameschappers claims about DD could damage. Just bet at 20/1 that he'll be next Cabinet minister out. https://t.co/vowq0lx88K pic.twitter.com/mrSd5ZqNhh — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 16, 2017 Good bets are not predictions but an assessment that the chances of a particular outcome are better than what the bookies are offering. Given all the noise round the BrexSec in the Tweet Tsunami from former DD aide James Chapman I reckon that the Ladbrokes 20/1 that he’ll be the next cabinet minister…

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ICM finds that just 38% want Charles to be King

ICM finds that just 38% want Charles to be King

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46% want the monarchy to skip a generation We don’t often have Royal Family polling but there is a new ICM survey out in Prospect magazine on what should happen following the Queen’s death. The figures aren’t good for Prince Charles. Just 38% want him to be the successor with 46% going for Prince William. The balance, 16%, declined to back either. To another question on whether the thought of Prince Charles as King made people more or less likely…

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Johnson the big loser – Rees-Mogg the big winner in the CON leadership betting since the election

Johnson the big loser – Rees-Mogg the big winner in the CON leadership betting since the election

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Given that the loss of the CON overall majority at general election happened less than ten weeks it is quite extraordinary to look back at the change in TMay replacement betting since then. In the aftermath of TMay’s failure to retain a majority the general assumption was that she’d quit within days and we’d be into to another leadership contest. The other assumption was that if Johnson could get through to the final round of voting, which is amongst the…

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When TMay apologists try to excuse her GE17 humiliation by bragging about increased CON vote share show them this chart

When TMay apologists try to excuse her GE17 humiliation by bragging about increased CON vote share show them this chart

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It’s the relationship with the LAB vote that matters In the run up to the CON conference at the start of October you are going to hear a lot about about how the Tory national vote share on June 8th went up to levels higher than Mrs Thatcher achieved with the implication that it wasn’t quite as bad as might appear. This is a desperate effort to try to whitewash TMay’s disastrous decision to go to the country three years…

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The August 2017 silly season continues – Ladbrokes now taking bets on “the Democrats” for the next General Election

The August 2017 silly season continues – Ladbrokes now taking bets on “the Democrats” for the next General Election

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https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/897098640631754753 @jameschappers g/f approves ?#thedemocrats #wemarch pic.twitter.com/IEBNV8mBxZ — Mike Hind (@MikeH_PR) August 14, 2017 The party doesn’t even exist yet I’m always impressed by the way bookies can sometimes create markets that appear to be designed to appeal to the wishful thinking of some punters. Today sees Ladbrokes offering 250/1 on the “Democrats” , currently a theoretical party suggested in a Tweet by James Chapman, winning most seats at the next general election. Much as personally I want to remain…

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Jacob Rees-Mogg heads for the favourite slot in the TMay successor betting as the DDavis decline continues

Jacob Rees-Mogg heads for the favourite slot in the TMay successor betting as the DDavis decline continues

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Betdata.io A silly season story we can ignore or a real possibility? The betting chart above shows the dramatic changes there’ve been in the CON leadership Betfair betting over the weekend with interest in the once clear favourite, Davd Davis, moving down sharply and the extraordinary rise of back-bencher Jacob Rees-Mogg. William Hill reported last night that ““There is definitely some momentum behind Jacob Rees-Mogg and in the last month he has been the most popular candidate by far”. The…

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There’s a case for saying that Johnson’s the best equipped to lead the Tories to Brexit and beyond

There’s a case for saying that Johnson’s the best equipped to lead the Tories to Brexit and beyond

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Who else is capable of selling what’ll be portrayed as a sell-out? Whoever is the PM as we exit the EU will have a massive task on her/his hand selling the Brexit deal or other arrangement to the party and to the country as a whole. The parliamentary Tory party is hugely divided as it has been on Europe for several decades and some are not going to compromise on issues like continuing payments or future links with European institutions….

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