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Month: July 2017

The signs that were there before the exit poll that a CON landslide wasn’t on the cards

The signs that were there before the exit poll that a CON landslide wasn’t on the cards

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How Prof Steve Fisher and Nate Silver provided the pointers On Wednesday, alongside Keiran Pedley and other leading pollsters, I took part in a post GE2017 conference organised by the University of Loughborough at its London campus in the Olympic park. It was a good event and I’m looking forward to some of the serious studies, including the post-election BES analysis that will be published. My contribution started by asserting that the whole polling CON landslide narrative during the campaign…

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TMay’s now a net 24 points behind Corbyn in Ipsos MORI leadership satisfaction ratings

TMay’s now a net 24 points behind Corbyn in Ipsos MORI leadership satisfaction ratings

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Not a good start for TMay as the Commons breaks up for the summer recess Seven weeks on from the General Election Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor finds that the negative shift in TMay’s personal ratings continues. Her ratings are the worst from the pollser for a Prime Minister in the month after an election. The firm has been polling in the UK since the mid-1970s One in three (34%) say they are satisfied with her performance as Prime Minister….

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In Tory leadership races the assassin rarely becomes the replacement

In Tory leadership races the assassin rarely becomes the replacement

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There’s almost a story a day running on who’ll be TMay’s successor although she’s given no indication other than that she’s staying put at Number 10 and would probably like to remain to beyond Brexit and beyond. But the PM’s personal authority was badly dented by the shock outcome to GE17 and, of course, her parliamentary position is neither strong nor stable. Her party, of course, has been riven with divisions on Europe for decades and arguably it brought the…

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Leadsom might not ever have a better chance of becoming PM than the 2016 leadership race that she flunked

Leadsom might not ever have a better chance of becoming PM than the 2016 leadership race that she flunked

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Her withdrawal then was a great disservice to the party It is being reported that Andrea Leadsom is ready to stand if there is move within the parliamentary party to try to anoint a successor to GE2017 failure, TMay, without the necessity of going through a full fledged leadership contest. The Tory leadership election system dates back to William Hague’s days in the 1997-2001 parliament with the final choice being made by via a members’ postal ballot from a shortlist…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Jeremy Corbyn is Britain’s most popular politician – but there’s a catch LISTEN

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Jeremy Corbyn is Britain’s most popular politician – but there’s a catch LISTEN

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss exclusive polling from Opinium that looks at how popular a series of frontline British politicians are. The poll asked a nationally representative sample of UK adults to rate the following politicians on a scale of 0 to 10 on the basis of how favourable they were to them: Jeremy Corbyn Sadiq Khan Yvette Cooper Keir Starmer Emily Thornberry Diane Abbott Ed Miliband Theresa May Boris Johnson David Davis Phillip…

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Well red, Alastair Meeks on Labour’s new MPs

Well red, Alastair Meeks on Labour’s new MPs

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One in five of Labour’s current MPs did not serve in the last Parliament.  With more than 50 new MPs, the new crop is going to make a big difference to Labour’s political balance.  So what does it look like? As with the new Conservatives, many of the new Labour MPs have been assiduous in tidying up their online presence.  It’s only human to wonder what indiscretions lurk among the deleted tweets.  I expect we’ll find out in due course. …

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This might be a bit late but PBers are invited to a post GE17 event tomorrow at the London Olympic Park

This might be a bit late but PBers are invited to a post GE17 event tomorrow at the London Olympic Park

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We welcome @IpsosMORI @ComRes @Survation @GfK & @MSmithsonPB to our free #GE2017 event tomorrow https://t.co/c9wNy14tPn #polling #NewMR #Mrx pic.twitter.com/5I8leh53sk — Loughborough CRCC (@lboroCRCC) July 18, 2017 This event provides an exploration of the momentous 2017 General Election from the perspectives of those most intimately involved as strategists, journalists and analysts. It will feature contributions from the campaigning, news and social media as well as polling organisations involved in the election. Participants include Ric Bailey (BBC), Jay Blumler (Univ of Leeds),…

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