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Month: June 2017

The Ipsos MORI guide to what happened segment by segment at GE2017

The Ipsos MORI guide to what happened segment by segment at GE2017

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This morning Ipsos MORI produced their regular analysis of what happened segment by segment at GE2017. The firm has been doing this at every election for many years and it is generally regarded as a leading source ahead of the full BES study. The most newsworthy element is that the very narrow range of turnout amongst those registered to vote. The young groups saw increases while the oldest one saw a decrease. It was this that deprived Mrs. May of…

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The polling numbers that should really scare the Tories – the oldies are abandoning Mrs May

The polling numbers that should really scare the Tories – the oldies are abandoning Mrs May

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The narrative of what drove the shock result in the general election is becoming well established. Those in the younger age segments turned out to vote on a scale that hadn’t been anticipated and they were much more pro LAB than CON. The result was that instead of losing seats to CON Corbyn’s LAB made gains off the Tories, the SNP and the LDs on a scale that alongside a handful of LD gains from CON caused Mrs May to…

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We could find out how good Corbyn is at herding chickens

We could find out how good Corbyn is at herding chickens

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What if Labour tried to form minority government? “That would be like herding chickens,” was how a member of the Shadow Cabinet responded when I suggested Labour’s leading campaigners should all be using the “weak and wobbly” counter to the Tory “strong and stable” slogan. I was delighted when, eventually, the phrase popped up in utterances from both Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell. So, maybe there is someone in Team Corbyn with the chicken herding skills which will undoubtedly be…

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David Davis moves up in sharply in the betting for TMay’s successor. Now a 27% chance

David Davis moves up in sharply in the betting for TMay’s successor. Now a 27% chance

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What we don’t know is whether there’ll be a vacancy or not What a totally crazy political period. The Brexit negotiations have started and Mrs. May’s Tories go into Wednesday’s Queen’s speech without a formal deal being announced on whether the 10 DUP MPs will support the blue team and enable the Tories to get a majority at the end of the debate. In all of this the 2005 CON leadership loser, David Davis, now moves up sharply in the…

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As the BREXIT negotiations start in Brussels LAB take 3% lead in new Survation poll

As the BREXIT negotiations start in Brussels LAB take 3% lead in new Survation poll

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New Survation voting poll for GMB has LAB 3% aheadCON 41%-1LAB 44% +4LD 6% =UKIP 2% -1Changes on Jun 5th — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2017 Why other pollsters are likely to show same trend when they start VI surveys again Given the precariousness of TMay’s parliamentary position we could be close to another general election yet only Survation has produced any published voting intention polls since June 8th. The firm starts from a strong point having done best…

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Infamy, infamy, they’ve all got it in for May

Infamy, infamy, they’ve all got it in for May

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DAILY TELEGRAPH top story #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/jvxea9XB42 — Helen Miller (@MsHelicat) June 18, 2017 Hammond quietly devastating on the General Election campaign. — Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) June 18, 2017 Yes, Philip Hammond confirms he is fully qualified as a candidate to succeed May. Can actually answer questions. — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) June 18, 2017 Pretty clear to me that Hammond fancies his chances as May's successor. Not yet a view shared by his colleagues — Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) June 18, 2017…

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Picking the nation’s leader. Why the Conservatives are running out of options

Picking the nation’s leader. Why the Conservatives are running out of options

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We’ve been here before. For the second time in less than a year, the Conservatives are on the brink of replacing a leader between elections while in power. Yet right now they are in such a tizz, they aren’t considering some of the critical considerations that such a responsibility entails. If the Conservatives replace Theresa May, they are not just choosing a new leader for themselves but the nation’s Prime Minister. They will find it unusually difficult to justify replacing…

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The first leader out betting. (Also known as how much the world has changed in the last ten days)

The first leader out betting. (Also known as how much the world has changed in the last ten days)

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THE SUNDAY TIMES: "Tories tell May: You have 10 days" #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/8TZEB20YuI — Helena Wilkinson (@BBCHelena) June 17, 2017 Corbyn is set to see off his second Tory Prime Minster in just his first two years as Labour leader. Paddy Power have a market up on who will resign first, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn, judging by the reports in today’s papers that 1/12 looks like value, though I’m not backing it, given the other side of the bet is…

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